Hovnanian Enterprises Pfd Preferred Stock Probability of Future Preferred Stock Price Finishing Under 17.36
| HOVNP Preferred Stock | USD 17.69 0.06 0.34% |
Hovnanian |
Hovnanian Enterprises Target Price Odds to finish below 17.36
The tendency of Hovnanian Preferred Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 17.36 or more in 90 days |
| 17.69 | 90 days | 17.36 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Hovnanian Enterprises to drop to $ 17.36 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Hovnanian Enterprises PFD probability density function shows the probability of Hovnanian Preferred Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Hovnanian Enterprises PFD price to stay between $ 17.36 and its current price of $17.69 at the end of the 90-day period is about 46.38 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Hovnanian Enterprises PFD has a beta of -0.029. This usually indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Hovnanian Enterprises are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Hovnanian Enterprises PFD is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Hovnanian Enterprises PFD has an alpha of 0.0063, implying that it can generate a 0.006305 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Hovnanian Enterprises Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Hovnanian Enterprises
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Hovnanian Enterprises PFD. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the preferred stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the preferred stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Hovnanian Enterprises Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Hovnanian Enterprises is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Hovnanian Enterprises' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Hovnanian Enterprises PFD, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Hovnanian Enterprises within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.01 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.03 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.14 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.04 |
Hovnanian Enterprises Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Hovnanian Preferred Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Hovnanian Enterprises' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Hovnanian Enterprises' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 147.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 401.1 M |
Hovnanian Enterprises Technical Analysis
Hovnanian Enterprises' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Hovnanian Preferred Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Hovnanian Enterprises PFD. In general, you should focus on analyzing Hovnanian Preferred Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Hovnanian Enterprises Predictive Forecast Models
Hovnanian Enterprises' time-series forecasting models is one of many Hovnanian Enterprises' preferred stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Hovnanian Enterprises' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the preferred stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Hovnanian Enterprises in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Hovnanian Enterprises' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Hovnanian Enterprises options trading.
Additional Tools for Hovnanian Preferred Stock Analysis
When running Hovnanian Enterprises' price analysis, check to measure Hovnanian Enterprises' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Hovnanian Enterprises is operating at the current time. Most of Hovnanian Enterprises' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Hovnanian Enterprises' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Hovnanian Enterprises' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Hovnanian Enterprises to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.