Humana (Germany) Chance of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 273.98
| HUM Stock | EUR 277.90 4.00 1.42% |
Humana |
Humana Target Price Odds to finish below 273.98
The tendency of Humana Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to € 273.98 or more in 90 days |
| 277.90 | 90 days | 273.98 | about 62.14 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Humana to drop to € 273.98 or more in 90 days from now is about 62.14 (This Humana Inc probability density function shows the probability of Humana Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Humana Inc price to stay between € 273.98 and its current price of €277.9 at the end of the 90-day period is about 5.04 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.3 . This usually indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Humana will likely underperform. Additionally Humana Inc has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Humana Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Humana
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Humana Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Humana Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Humana is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Humana's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Humana Inc, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Humana within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.27 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.30 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 28.82 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.06 |
Humana Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Humana for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Humana Inc can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Humana Inc generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Humana Inc has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| The company has €9.03 Billion in debt which may indicate that it relies heavily on debt financing | |
| Over 96.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors |
Humana Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Humana Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Humana's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Humana's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 125 M | |
| Dividends Paid | 392 M | |
| Short Long Term Debt | 2.4 B | |
| Forward Annual Dividend Rate | 3.31 | |
| Shares Float | 124.7 M |
Humana Technical Analysis
Humana's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Humana Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Humana Inc. In general, you should focus on analyzing Humana Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Humana Predictive Forecast Models
Humana's time-series forecasting models is one of many Humana's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Humana's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Humana Inc
Checking the ongoing alerts about Humana for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Humana Inc help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Humana Inc generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Humana Inc has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| The company has €9.03 Billion in debt which may indicate that it relies heavily on debt financing | |
| Over 96.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors |
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Humana Stock
When determining whether Humana Inc is a strong investment it is important to analyze Humana's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Humana's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Humana Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out Humana Backtesting, Humana Valuation, Humana Correlation, Humana Hype Analysis, Humana Volatility, Humana History as well as Humana Performance. You can also try the Odds Of Bankruptcy module to get analysis of equity chance of financial distress in the next 2 years.