Vietnam Airlines (Vietnam) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 26800.0
| HVN Stock | 26,500 300.00 1.12% |
Vietnam |
Vietnam Airlines Target Price Odds to finish below 26800.0
The tendency of Vietnam Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under 26,800 after 90 days |
| 26,500 | 90 days | 26,800 | about 89.04 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Vietnam Airlines to stay under 26,800 after 90 days from now is about 89.04 (This Vietnam Airlines JSC probability density function shows the probability of Vietnam Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Vietnam Airlines JSC price to stay between its current price of 26,500 and 26,800 at the end of the 90-day period is roughly 2.14 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Vietnam Airlines has a beta of 0.39. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, Vietnam Airlines average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Vietnam Airlines JSC will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Vietnam Airlines JSC has an alpha of 0.3437, implying that it can generate a 0.34 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Vietnam Airlines Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Vietnam Airlines
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Vietnam Airlines JSC. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Vietnam Airlines Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Vietnam Airlines is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Vietnam Airlines' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Vietnam Airlines JSC, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Vietnam Airlines within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.34 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.39 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2,787 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.12 |
Vietnam Airlines Technical Analysis
Vietnam Airlines' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Vietnam Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Vietnam Airlines JSC. In general, you should focus on analyzing Vietnam Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Vietnam Airlines Predictive Forecast Models
Vietnam Airlines' time-series forecasting models is one of many Vietnam Airlines' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Vietnam Airlines' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Vietnam Airlines in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Vietnam Airlines' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Vietnam Airlines options trading.