VanEck Vectors (Germany) Probability of Future Etf Price Finishing Under 109.92
| HY3M Etf | EUR 118.33 0.29 0.25% |
VanEck |
VanEck Vectors Target Price Odds to finish below 109.92
The tendency of VanEck Etf price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to € 109.92 or more in 90 days |
| 118.33 | 90 days | 109.92 | about 12.92 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of VanEck Vectors to drop to € 109.92 or more in 90 days from now is about 12.92 (This VanEck Vectors UCITS probability density function shows the probability of VanEck Etf to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of VanEck Vectors UCITS price to stay between € 109.92 and its current price of €118.33 at the end of the 90-day period is about 81.5 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon VanEck Vectors has a beta of 0.17. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, VanEck Vectors average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding VanEck Vectors UCITS will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally VanEck Vectors UCITS has an alpha of 0.1037, implying that it can generate a 0.1 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). VanEck Vectors Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for VanEck Vectors
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as VanEck Vectors UCITS. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.VanEck Vectors Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. VanEck Vectors is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the VanEck Vectors' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold VanEck Vectors UCITS, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of VanEck Vectors within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.10 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.17 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 3.08 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.06 |
VanEck Vectors Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of VanEck Etf often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential VanEck Vectors' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. VanEck Vectors' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
VanEck Vectors Technical Analysis
VanEck Vectors' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. VanEck Etf technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of VanEck Vectors UCITS. In general, you should focus on analyzing VanEck Etf price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
VanEck Vectors Predictive Forecast Models
VanEck Vectors' time-series forecasting models is one of many VanEck Vectors' etf analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary VanEck Vectors' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the etf market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards VanEck Vectors in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, VanEck Vectors' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from VanEck Vectors options trading.
Other Information on Investing in VanEck Etf
VanEck Vectors financial ratios help investors to determine whether VanEck Etf is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in VanEck with respect to the benefits of owning VanEck Vectors security.