Ingles Markets Incorporated Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 67.31
| IMKTA Stock | USD 65.32 0.94 1.42% |
Ingles |
Ingles Markets Target Price Odds to finish below 67.31
The tendency of Ingles Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under $ 67.31 after 90 days |
| 65.32 | 90 days | 67.31 | about 45.84 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Ingles Markets to stay under $ 67.31 after 90 days from now is about 45.84 (This Ingles Markets Incorporated probability density function shows the probability of Ingles Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Ingles Markets price to stay between its current price of $ 65.32 and $ 67.31 at the end of the 90-day period is about 17.27 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Ingles Markets has a beta of 0.0785. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, Ingles Markets average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Ingles Markets Incorporated will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Ingles Markets Incorporated has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Ingles Markets Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Ingles Markets
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ingles Markets. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Ingles Markets' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Ingles Markets Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Ingles Markets is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Ingles Markets' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Ingles Markets Incorporated, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Ingles Markets within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.15 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.08 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 4.32 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.08 |
Ingles Markets Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Ingles Markets for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Ingles Markets can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Ingles Markets generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Ingles Markets is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Over 88.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from businesswire.com: Ingles Markets, Incorporated Reports Receipt of Notice from Nasdaq Regarding Delayed Filing of Annual Report on Form 10-K |
Ingles Markets Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Ingles Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Ingles Markets' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Ingles Markets' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 19 M |
Ingles Markets Technical Analysis
Ingles Markets' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Ingles Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Ingles Markets Incorporated. In general, you should focus on analyzing Ingles Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Ingles Markets Predictive Forecast Models
Ingles Markets' time-series forecasting models is one of many Ingles Markets' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Ingles Markets' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Ingles Markets
Checking the ongoing alerts about Ingles Markets for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Ingles Markets help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Ingles Markets generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Ingles Markets is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Over 88.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from businesswire.com: Ingles Markets, Incorporated Reports Receipt of Notice from Nasdaq Regarding Delayed Filing of Annual Report on Form 10-K |
Check out Ingles Markets Backtesting, Ingles Markets Valuation, Ingles Markets Correlation, Ingles Markets Hype Analysis, Ingles Markets Volatility, Ingles Markets History as well as Ingles Markets Performance. You can also try the Portfolio Holdings module to check your current holdings and cash postion to detemine if your portfolio needs rebalancing.
Is Consumer Staples Distribution & Retail space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Ingles Markets. If investors know Ingles will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Ingles Markets listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.34) | Earnings Share 5.56 | Revenue Per Share 306.779 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.03) | Return On Assets 0.053 |
The market value of Ingles Markets is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Ingles that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Ingles Markets' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Ingles Markets' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Ingles Markets' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Ingles Markets' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Ingles Markets' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Ingles Markets is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Ingles Markets' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.