Innovage Holding Corp Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 0.07
| INNV Stock | USD 4.19 0.66 18.70% |
InnovAge |
InnovAge Holding Target Price Odds to finish below 0.07
The tendency of InnovAge Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 0.07 or more in 90 days |
| 4.19 | 90 days | 0.07 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of InnovAge Holding to drop to $ 0.07 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This InnovAge Holding Corp probability density function shows the probability of InnovAge Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of InnovAge Holding Corp price to stay between $ 0.07 and its current price of $4.19 at the end of the 90-day period is under 4.
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 2.63 . This usually indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, InnovAge Holding will likely underperform. Additionally InnovAge Holding Corp has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. InnovAge Holding Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for InnovAge Holding
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as InnovAge Holding Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.InnovAge Holding Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. InnovAge Holding is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the InnovAge Holding's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold InnovAge Holding Corp, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of InnovAge Holding within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.54 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 2.63 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.65 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.13 |
InnovAge Holding Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of InnovAge Holding for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for InnovAge Holding Corp can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| InnovAge Holding generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| InnovAge Holding has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 763.86 M. Net Loss for the year was (23.22 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 475.82 M. | |
| InnovAge Holding Corp currently holds about 184.43 M in cash with (36.9 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 1.36. | |
| InnovAge Holding has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Roughly 85.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
InnovAge Holding Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of InnovAge Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential InnovAge Holding's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. InnovAge Holding's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 135.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 102.8 M |
InnovAge Holding Technical Analysis
InnovAge Holding's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. InnovAge Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of InnovAge Holding Corp. In general, you should focus on analyzing InnovAge Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
InnovAge Holding Predictive Forecast Models
InnovAge Holding's time-series forecasting models is one of many InnovAge Holding's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary InnovAge Holding's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about InnovAge Holding Corp
Checking the ongoing alerts about InnovAge Holding for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for InnovAge Holding Corp help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| InnovAge Holding generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| InnovAge Holding has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 763.86 M. Net Loss for the year was (23.22 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 475.82 M. | |
| InnovAge Holding Corp currently holds about 184.43 M in cash with (36.9 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 1.36. | |
| InnovAge Holding has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Roughly 85.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Additional Tools for InnovAge Stock Analysis
When running InnovAge Holding's price analysis, check to measure InnovAge Holding's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy InnovAge Holding is operating at the current time. Most of InnovAge Holding's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of InnovAge Holding's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move InnovAge Holding's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of InnovAge Holding to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.