Poplar Forest Nerstone Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Under 28.78
| IPFCX Fund | USD 31.34 0.09 0.29% |
POPLAR |
Poplar Forest Target Price Odds to finish below 28.78
The tendency of POPLAR Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 28.78 or more in 90 days |
| 31.34 | 90 days | 28.78 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Poplar Forest to drop to $ 28.78 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Poplar Forest Nerstone probability density function shows the probability of POPLAR Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Poplar Forest Nerstone price to stay between $ 28.78 and its current price of $31.34 at the end of the 90-day period is close to 99 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Poplar Forest has a beta of 0.52. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, Poplar Forest average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Poplar Forest Nerstone will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Poplar Forest Nerstone has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Poplar Forest Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Poplar Forest
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Poplar Forest Nerstone. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Poplar Forest's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Poplar Forest Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Poplar Forest is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Poplar Forest's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Poplar Forest Nerstone, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Poplar Forest within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.01 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.52 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.31 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.14 |
Poplar Forest Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Poplar Forest for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Poplar Forest Nerstone can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| The fund retains about 21.91% of its assets under management (AUM) in fixed income securities |
Poplar Forest Technical Analysis
Poplar Forest's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. POPLAR Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Poplar Forest Nerstone. In general, you should focus on analyzing POPLAR Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Poplar Forest Predictive Forecast Models
Poplar Forest's time-series forecasting models is one of many Poplar Forest's mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Poplar Forest's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Poplar Forest Nerstone
Checking the ongoing alerts about Poplar Forest for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Poplar Forest Nerstone help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| The fund retains about 21.91% of its assets under management (AUM) in fixed income securities |
Other Information on Investing in POPLAR Mutual Fund
Poplar Forest financial ratios help investors to determine whether POPLAR Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in POPLAR with respect to the benefits of owning Poplar Forest security.
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