IRB Brasil (Brazil) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 37.05
| IRBR3 Stock | BRL 40.26 1.28 3.28% |
IRB |
IRB Brasil Target Price Odds to finish below 37.05
The tendency of IRB Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to R$ 37.05 or more in 90 days |
| 40.26 | 90 days | 37.05 | about 1.19 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of IRB Brasil to drop to R$ 37.05 or more in 90 days from now is about 1.19 (This IRB Brasil Resseguros SA probability density function shows the probability of IRB Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of IRB Brasil Resseguros price to stay between R$ 37.05 and its current price of R$40.26 at the end of the 90-day period is about 13.02 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon IRB Brasil has a beta of 0.24. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, IRB Brasil average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding IRB Brasil Resseguros SA will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally IRB Brasil Resseguros SA has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. IRB Brasil Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for IRB Brasil
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as IRB Brasil Resseguros. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.IRB Brasil Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. IRB Brasil is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the IRB Brasil's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold IRB Brasil Resseguros SA, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of IRB Brasil within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.32 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.24 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.71 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.14 |
IRB Brasil Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of IRB Brasil for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for IRB Brasil Resseguros can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| IRB Brasil generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| IRB Brasil has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| IRB Brasil Resseguros SA has accumulated 819.11 M in total debt. IRB Brasil Resseguros has a current ratio of 0.83, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist IRB Brasil until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, IRB Brasil's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like IRB Brasil Resseguros sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for IRB to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about IRB Brasil's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| The entity reported the revenue of 6.28 B. Net Loss for the year was (682.7 M) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (968.71 M). | |
| IRB Brasil Resseguros SA has accumulated about 1.49 B in cash with (129.86 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 4.81. | |
| Roughly 27.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
IRB Brasil Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of IRB Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential IRB Brasil's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. IRB Brasil's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.3 B |
IRB Brasil Technical Analysis
IRB Brasil's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. IRB Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of IRB Brasil Resseguros SA. In general, you should focus on analyzing IRB Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
IRB Brasil Predictive Forecast Models
IRB Brasil's time-series forecasting models is one of many IRB Brasil's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary IRB Brasil's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about IRB Brasil Resseguros
Checking the ongoing alerts about IRB Brasil for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for IRB Brasil Resseguros help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| IRB Brasil generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| IRB Brasil has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| IRB Brasil Resseguros SA has accumulated 819.11 M in total debt. IRB Brasil Resseguros has a current ratio of 0.83, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist IRB Brasil until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, IRB Brasil's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like IRB Brasil Resseguros sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for IRB to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about IRB Brasil's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| The entity reported the revenue of 6.28 B. Net Loss for the year was (682.7 M) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (968.71 M). | |
| IRB Brasil Resseguros SA has accumulated about 1.49 B in cash with (129.86 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 4.81. | |
| Roughly 27.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Additional Tools for IRB Stock Analysis
When running IRB Brasil's price analysis, check to measure IRB Brasil's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy IRB Brasil is operating at the current time. Most of IRB Brasil's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of IRB Brasil's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move IRB Brasil's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of IRB Brasil to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.