Itama Ranoraya (Indonesia) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 414.88

IRRA Stock  IDR 414.00  2.00  0.48%   
Itama Ranoraya's future price is the expected price of Itama Ranoraya instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Itama Ranoraya performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Itama Ranoraya Backtesting, Itama Ranoraya Valuation, Itama Ranoraya Correlation, Itama Ranoraya Hype Analysis, Itama Ranoraya Volatility, Itama Ranoraya History as well as Itama Ranoraya Performance.
  
Please specify Itama Ranoraya's target price for which you would like Itama Ranoraya odds to be computed.

Itama Ranoraya Target Price Odds to finish below 414.88

The tendency of Itama Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay under  414.88  after 90 days
 414.00 90 days 414.88 
about 7.89
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Itama Ranoraya to stay under  414.88  after 90 days from now is about 7.89 (This Itama Ranoraya probability density function shows the probability of Itama Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Itama Ranoraya price to stay between its current price of  414.00  and  414.88  at the end of the 90-day period is near 1 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Itama Ranoraya has a beta of -0.0929. This usually indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Itama Ranoraya are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Itama Ranoraya is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Itama Ranoraya has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial.
   Itama Ranoraya Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Itama Ranoraya

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Itama Ranoraya. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
412.88414.00415.12
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
345.56346.68455.40
Details

Itama Ranoraya Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Itama Ranoraya is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Itama Ranoraya's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Itama Ranoraya, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Itama Ranoraya within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
-0.24
β
Beta against Dow Jones-0.09
σ
Overall volatility
28.37
Ir
Information ratio -0.3

Itama Ranoraya Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Itama Ranoraya for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Itama Ranoraya can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Itama Ranoraya generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Itama Ranoraya has accumulated about 11.11 B in cash with (106.83 B) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 7.11.
Roughly 81.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders

Itama Ranoraya Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Itama Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Itama Ranoraya's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Itama Ranoraya's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding1.6 B
Cash And Short Term Investments135.3 B

Itama Ranoraya Technical Analysis

Itama Ranoraya's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Itama Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Itama Ranoraya. In general, you should focus on analyzing Itama Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Itama Ranoraya Predictive Forecast Models

Itama Ranoraya's time-series forecasting models is one of many Itama Ranoraya's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Itama Ranoraya's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Itama Ranoraya

Checking the ongoing alerts about Itama Ranoraya for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Itama Ranoraya help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Itama Ranoraya generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Itama Ranoraya has accumulated about 11.11 B in cash with (106.83 B) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 7.11.
Roughly 81.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders

Other Information on Investing in Itama Stock

Itama Ranoraya financial ratios help investors to determine whether Itama Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Itama with respect to the benefits of owning Itama Ranoraya security.