Kraneshares Trust Etf Probability of Future Etf Price Finishing Under 24.89
| KCSH Etf | 25.13 0.02 0.08% |
KraneShares |
KraneShares Trust Target Price Odds to finish below 24.89
The tendency of KraneShares Etf price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 24.89 or more in 90 days |
| 25.13 | 90 days | 24.89 | about 8.25 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of KraneShares Trust to drop to 24.89 or more in 90 days from now is about 8.25 (This KraneShares Trust probability density function shows the probability of KraneShares Etf to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of KraneShares Trust price to stay between 24.89 and its current price of 25.13 at the end of the 90-day period is about 84.54 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days KraneShares Trust has a beta of -0.0271. This indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding KraneShares Trust are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, KraneShares Trust is likely to outperform the market. Additionally KraneShares Trust has an alpha of 0.0076, implying that it can generate a 0.007627 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). KraneShares Trust Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for KraneShares Trust
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as KraneShares Trust. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of KraneShares Trust's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
KraneShares Trust Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. KraneShares Trust is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the KraneShares Trust's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold KraneShares Trust, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of KraneShares Trust within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.01 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.03 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.08 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.99 |
KraneShares Trust Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of KraneShares Etf often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential KraneShares Trust's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. KraneShares Trust's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
KraneShares Trust Technical Analysis
KraneShares Trust's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. KraneShares Etf technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of KraneShares Trust. In general, you should focus on analyzing KraneShares Etf price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
KraneShares Trust Predictive Forecast Models
KraneShares Trust's time-series forecasting models is one of many KraneShares Trust's etf analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary KraneShares Trust's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the etf market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards KraneShares Trust in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, KraneShares Trust's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from KraneShares Trust options trading.
Check out KraneShares Trust Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, KraneShares Trust Correlation, KraneShares Trust Hype Analysis, KraneShares Trust Volatility, KraneShares Trust History as well as KraneShares Trust Performance. For more detail on how to invest in KraneShares Etf please use our How to Invest in KraneShares Trust guide.You can also try the Stocks Directory module to find actively traded stocks across global markets.
The market value of KraneShares Trust is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of KraneShares that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of KraneShares Trust's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is KraneShares Trust's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because KraneShares Trust's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect KraneShares Trust's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between KraneShares Trust's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if KraneShares Trust is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, KraneShares Trust's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.