Lichen China Limited Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 1.68
| LICN Stock | 0.28 0.02 7.33% |
Lichen |
Lichen China Target Price Odds to finish below 1.68
The tendency of Lichen Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under 1.68 after 90 days |
| 0.28 | 90 days | 1.68 | about 31.81 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Lichen China to stay under 1.68 after 90 days from now is about 31.81 (This Lichen China Limited probability density function shows the probability of Lichen Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Lichen China Limited price to stay between its current price of 0.28 and 1.68 at the end of the 90-day period is about 31.88 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.16 . This indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Lichen China will likely underperform. Additionally Lichen China Limited has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Lichen China Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Lichen China
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Lichen China Limited. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Lichen China's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Lichen China Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Lichen China is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Lichen China's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Lichen China Limited, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Lichen China within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -1.69 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.16 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.34 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.15 |
Lichen China Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Lichen China for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Lichen China Limited can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Lichen China Limited generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Lichen China Limited has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Lichen China Limited has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| Lichen China Limited has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| About 17.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: LICN Stock Rebounds After Recent Decline |
Lichen China Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Lichen Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Lichen China's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Lichen China's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 26.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 25.9 M |
Lichen China Technical Analysis
Lichen China's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Lichen Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Lichen China Limited. In general, you should focus on analyzing Lichen Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Lichen China Predictive Forecast Models
Lichen China's time-series forecasting models is one of many Lichen China's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Lichen China's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Lichen China Limited
Checking the ongoing alerts about Lichen China for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Lichen China Limited help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Lichen China Limited generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Lichen China Limited has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Lichen China Limited has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| Lichen China Limited has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| About 17.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: LICN Stock Rebounds After Recent Decline |
Check out Lichen China Backtesting, Lichen China Valuation, Lichen China Correlation, Lichen China Hype Analysis, Lichen China Volatility, Lichen China History as well as Lichen China Performance. You can also try the Portfolio Optimization module to compute new portfolio that will generate highest expected return given your specified tolerance for risk.
Is Environmental & Facilities Services space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Lichen China. If investors know Lichen will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Lichen China listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.51) | Earnings Share 0.3 | Revenue Per Share 1.491 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.136 | Return On Assets 0.1078 |
The market value of Lichen China Limited is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Lichen that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Lichen China's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Lichen China's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Lichen China's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Lichen China's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Lichen China's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Lichen China is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Lichen China's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.