Light SA (Brazil) Odds of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 3.94
| LIGT3 Stock | BRL 4.25 0.05 1.19% |
Light |
Light SA Target Price Odds to finish below 3.94
The tendency of Light Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to R$ 3.94 or more in 90 days |
| 4.25 | 90 days | 3.94 | about 8.68 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Light SA to drop to R$ 3.94 or more in 90 days from now is about 8.68 (This Light SA probability density function shows the probability of Light Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Light SA price to stay between R$ 3.94 and its current price of R$4.25 at the end of the 90-day period is nearly 4.38 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Light SA has a beta of 0.38. This indicates as returns on the market go up, Light SA average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Light SA will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Light SA has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Light SA Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Light SA
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Light SA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Light SA Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Light SA is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Light SA's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Light SA, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Light SA within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.88 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.38 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.31 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.21 |
Light SA Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Light SA for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Light SA can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Light SA generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Light SA has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Light SA has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| Light SA has accumulated about 343.25 M in cash with (42.05 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 5.82, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. | |
| Roughly 74.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors |
Light SA Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Light Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Light SA's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Light SA's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 303.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 4.8 B |
Light SA Technical Analysis
Light SA's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Light Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Light SA. In general, you should focus on analyzing Light Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Light SA Predictive Forecast Models
Light SA's time-series forecasting models is one of many Light SA's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Light SA's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Light SA
Checking the ongoing alerts about Light SA for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Light SA help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Light SA generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Light SA has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Light SA has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| Light SA has accumulated about 343.25 M in cash with (42.05 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 5.82, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. | |
| Roughly 74.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors |
Additional Tools for Light Stock Analysis
When running Light SA's price analysis, check to measure Light SA's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Light SA is operating at the current time. Most of Light SA's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Light SA's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Light SA's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Light SA to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.