Lion Brewery (Sri Lanka) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 1205.75
| LIONN0000 | LKR 1,218 21.75 1.82% |
Lion |
Lion Brewery Target Price Odds to finish below 1205.75
The tendency of Lion Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 1,206 or more in 90 days |
| 1,218 | 90 days | 1,206 | close to 99 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Lion Brewery to drop to 1,206 or more in 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Lion Brewery Ceylon probability density function shows the probability of Lion Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Lion Brewery Ceylon price to stay between 1,206 and its current price of 1218.25 at the end of the 90-day period is near 1 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Lion Brewery Ceylon has a beta of -0.55. This indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Lion Brewery are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Lion Brewery Ceylon is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Lion Brewery Ceylon has an alpha of 0.3637, implying that it can generate a 0.36 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Lion Brewery Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Lion Brewery
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Lion Brewery Ceylon. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Lion Brewery Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Lion Brewery is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Lion Brewery's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Lion Brewery Ceylon, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Lion Brewery within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.36 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.55 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 60.51 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.1 |
Lion Brewery Technical Analysis
Lion Brewery's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Lion Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Lion Brewery Ceylon. In general, you should focus on analyzing Lion Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Lion Brewery Predictive Forecast Models
Lion Brewery's time-series forecasting models is one of many Lion Brewery's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Lion Brewery's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Lion Brewery in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Lion Brewery's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Lion Brewery options trading.
Other Information on Investing in Lion Stock
Lion Brewery financial ratios help investors to determine whether Lion Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Lion with respect to the benefits of owning Lion Brewery security.