Lightpath Technologies Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 2.52
| LPTH Stock | USD 3.25 0.56 20.82% |
LightPath |
LightPath Technologies Target Price Odds to finish below 2.52
The tendency of LightPath Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 2.52 or more in 90 days |
| 3.25 | 90 days | 2.52 | close to 99 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of LightPath Technologies to drop to $ 2.52 or more in 90 days from now is close to 99 (This LightPath Technologies probability density function shows the probability of LightPath Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of LightPath Technologies price to stay between $ 2.52 and its current price of $3.25 at the end of the 90-day period is near 1 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days LightPath Technologies has a beta of -0.72. This indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding LightPath Technologies are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, LightPath Technologies is likely to outperform the market. Moreover LightPath Technologies has an alpha of 1.241, implying that it can generate a 1.24 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). LightPath Technologies Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for LightPath Technologies
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as LightPath Technologies. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of LightPath Technologies' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
LightPath Technologies Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. LightPath Technologies is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the LightPath Technologies' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold LightPath Technologies, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of LightPath Technologies within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 1.24 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.72 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.31 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.27 |
LightPath Technologies Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of LightPath Technologies for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for LightPath Technologies can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| LightPath Technologies appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 31.73 M. Net Loss for the year was (8.01 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 11.07 M. | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: LightPath Technologies Issues Shareholder Letter and Provides Corporate Update |
LightPath Technologies Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of LightPath Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential LightPath Technologies' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. LightPath Technologies' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 37.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 3.5 M |
LightPath Technologies Technical Analysis
LightPath Technologies' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. LightPath Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of LightPath Technologies. In general, you should focus on analyzing LightPath Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
LightPath Technologies Predictive Forecast Models
LightPath Technologies' time-series forecasting models is one of many LightPath Technologies' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary LightPath Technologies' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about LightPath Technologies
Checking the ongoing alerts about LightPath Technologies for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for LightPath Technologies help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| LightPath Technologies appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 31.73 M. Net Loss for the year was (8.01 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 11.07 M. | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: LightPath Technologies Issues Shareholder Letter and Provides Corporate Update |
Check out LightPath Technologies Backtesting, LightPath Technologies Valuation, LightPath Technologies Correlation, LightPath Technologies Hype Analysis, LightPath Technologies Volatility, LightPath Technologies History as well as LightPath Technologies Performance. For more detail on how to invest in LightPath Stock please use our How to Invest in LightPath Technologies guide.You can also try the Volatility Analysis module to get historical volatility and risk analysis based on latest market data.
Is Electronic Equipment, Instruments & Components space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of LightPath Technologies. If investors know LightPath will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about LightPath Technologies listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 49.113 | Earnings Share (0.21) | Revenue Per Share 0.833 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.04 | Return On Assets (0.09) |
The market value of LightPath Technologies is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of LightPath that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of LightPath Technologies' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is LightPath Technologies' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because LightPath Technologies' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect LightPath Technologies' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between LightPath Technologies' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if LightPath Technologies is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, LightPath Technologies' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.