Macys (Brazil) Chance of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 96.19
| MACY34 Stock | 111.32 8.32 8.08% |
Macys |
Macys Target Price Odds to finish below 96.19
The tendency of Macys Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 96.19 or more in 90 days |
| 111.32 | 90 days | 96.19 | about 80.06 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Macys to drop to 96.19 or more in 90 days from now is about 80.06 (This Macys Inc probability density function shows the probability of Macys Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Macys Inc price to stay between 96.19 and its current price of 111.32 at the end of the 90-day period is about 19.74 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Macys Inc has a beta of -0.41. This indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Macys are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Macys Inc is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Macys Inc has an alpha of 0.3674, implying that it can generate a 0.37 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Macys Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Macys
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Macys Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Macys Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Macys is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Macys' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Macys Inc, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Macys within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.37 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.41 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 6.41 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.14 |
Macys Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Macys Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Macys' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Macys' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 299.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.7 B |
Macys Technical Analysis
Macys' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Macys Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Macys Inc. In general, you should focus on analyzing Macys Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Macys Predictive Forecast Models
Macys' time-series forecasting models is one of many Macys' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Macys' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Macys in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Macys' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Macys options trading.
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Macys Stock
When determining whether Macys Inc is a strong investment it is important to analyze Macys' competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Macys' future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Macys Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out Macys Backtesting, Macys Valuation, Macys Correlation, Macys Hype Analysis, Macys Volatility, Macys History as well as Macys Performance. You can also try the Portfolio Center module to all portfolio management and optimization tools to improve performance of your portfolios.