Maschinenfabrik Berthold (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 160.38
| MBH3 Stock | EUR 162.00 0.50 0.31% |
Maschinenfabrik |
Maschinenfabrik Berthold Target Price Odds to finish over 160.38
The tendency of Maschinenfabrik Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above € 160.38 in 90 days |
| 162.00 | 90 days | 160.38 | roughly 97.0 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Maschinenfabrik Berthold to stay above € 160.38 in 90 days from now is roughly 97.0 (This Maschinenfabrik Berthold Hermle probability density function shows the probability of Maschinenfabrik Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Maschinenfabrik Berthold price to stay between € 160.38 and its current price of €162.0 at the end of the 90-day period is about 1.03 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Maschinenfabrik Berthold has a beta of 0.0365. This indicates as returns on the market go up, Maschinenfabrik Berthold average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Maschinenfabrik Berthold Hermle will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Maschinenfabrik Berthold Hermle has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Maschinenfabrik Berthold Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Maschinenfabrik Berthold
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Maschinenfabrik Berthold. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Maschinenfabrik Berthold Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Maschinenfabrik Berthold is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Maschinenfabrik Berthold's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Maschinenfabrik Berthold Hermle, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Maschinenfabrik Berthold within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.3 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.04 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 13.33 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.23 |
Maschinenfabrik Berthold Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Maschinenfabrik Berthold for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Maschinenfabrik Berthold can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Maschinenfabrik Berthold generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days |
Maschinenfabrik Berthold Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Maschinenfabrik Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Maschinenfabrik Berthold's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Maschinenfabrik Berthold's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 5 M |
Maschinenfabrik Berthold Technical Analysis
Maschinenfabrik Berthold's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Maschinenfabrik Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Maschinenfabrik Berthold Hermle. In general, you should focus on analyzing Maschinenfabrik Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Maschinenfabrik Berthold Predictive Forecast Models
Maschinenfabrik Berthold's time-series forecasting models is one of many Maschinenfabrik Berthold's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Maschinenfabrik Berthold's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Maschinenfabrik Berthold
Checking the ongoing alerts about Maschinenfabrik Berthold for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Maschinenfabrik Berthold help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Maschinenfabrik Berthold generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days |
Other Information on Investing in Maschinenfabrik Stock
Maschinenfabrik Berthold financial ratios help investors to determine whether Maschinenfabrik Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Maschinenfabrik with respect to the benefits of owning Maschinenfabrik Berthold security.