Mayville Engineering Co Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 26.97
| MEC Stock | USD 15.69 0.36 2.24% |
Mayville |
Mayville Engineering Target Price Odds to finish over 26.97
The tendency of Mayville Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 26.97 or more in 90 days |
| 15.69 | 90 days | 26.97 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Mayville Engineering to move over $ 26.97 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Mayville Engineering Co probability density function shows the probability of Mayville Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Mayville Engineering price to stay between its current price of $ 15.69 and $ 26.97 at the end of the 90-day period is about 92.0 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Mayville Engineering has a beta of 0.4. This indicates as returns on the market go up, Mayville Engineering average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Mayville Engineering Co will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Mayville Engineering Co has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Mayville Engineering Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Mayville Engineering
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Mayville Engineering. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Mayville Engineering's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Mayville Engineering Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Mayville Engineering is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Mayville Engineering's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Mayville Engineering Co, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Mayville Engineering within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.3 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.40 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.00 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.1 |
Mayville Engineering Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Mayville Engineering for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Mayville Engineering can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Mayville Engineering generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Mayville Engineering has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| About 58.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Mayville Engineering Company Announces Leadership Transition |
Mayville Engineering Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Mayville Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Mayville Engineering's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Mayville Engineering's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 20.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 672 K |
Mayville Engineering Technical Analysis
Mayville Engineering's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Mayville Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Mayville Engineering Co. In general, you should focus on analyzing Mayville Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Mayville Engineering Predictive Forecast Models
Mayville Engineering's time-series forecasting models is one of many Mayville Engineering's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Mayville Engineering's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Mayville Engineering
Checking the ongoing alerts about Mayville Engineering for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Mayville Engineering help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Mayville Engineering generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Mayville Engineering has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| About 58.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Mayville Engineering Company Announces Leadership Transition |
Check out Mayville Engineering Backtesting, Mayville Engineering Valuation, Mayville Engineering Correlation, Mayville Engineering Hype Analysis, Mayville Engineering Volatility, Mayville Engineering History as well as Mayville Engineering Performance. You can also try the Economic Indicators module to top statistical indicators that provide insights into how an economy is performing.
Is Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Mayville Engineering. If investors know Mayville will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Mayville Engineering listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 1 | Earnings Share 0.59 | Revenue Per Share 29.624 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.14) | Return On Assets 0.0313 |
The market value of Mayville Engineering is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Mayville that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Mayville Engineering's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Mayville Engineering's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Mayville Engineering's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Mayville Engineering's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Mayville Engineering's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Mayville Engineering is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Mayville Engineering's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.