Maple Leaf Foods Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 16.05
| MFI Stock | CAD 20.34 0.17 0.83% |
Maple |
Maple Leaf Target Price Odds to finish below 16.05
The tendency of Maple Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to C$ 16.05 or more in 90 days |
| 20.34 | 90 days | 16.05 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Maple Leaf to drop to C$ 16.05 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Maple Leaf Foods probability density function shows the probability of Maple Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Maple Leaf Foods price to stay between C$ 16.05 and its current price of C$20.34 at the end of the 90-day period is near 1 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Maple Leaf has a beta of 0.41. This indicates as returns on the market go up, Maple Leaf average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Maple Leaf Foods will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Maple Leaf Foods has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Maple Leaf Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Maple Leaf
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Maple Leaf Foods. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Maple Leaf Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Maple Leaf is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Maple Leaf's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Maple Leaf Foods, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Maple Leaf within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.12 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.41 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.61 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.08 |
Maple Leaf Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Maple Leaf for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Maple Leaf Foods can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Maple Leaf Foods generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| The company reported the revenue of 4.87 B. Net Loss for the year was (124.98 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 424.14 M. | |
| About 40.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Maple Leaf Foods Inc. Receives Average Recommendation of Buy from Brokerages - MarketBeat |
Maple Leaf Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Maple Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Maple Leaf's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Maple Leaf's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 121.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 203.4 M |
Maple Leaf Technical Analysis
Maple Leaf's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Maple Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Maple Leaf Foods. In general, you should focus on analyzing Maple Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Maple Leaf Predictive Forecast Models
Maple Leaf's time-series forecasting models is one of many Maple Leaf's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Maple Leaf's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Maple Leaf Foods
Checking the ongoing alerts about Maple Leaf for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Maple Leaf Foods help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Maple Leaf Foods generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| The company reported the revenue of 4.87 B. Net Loss for the year was (124.98 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 424.14 M. | |
| About 40.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Maple Leaf Foods Inc. Receives Average Recommendation of Buy from Brokerages - MarketBeat |
Other Information on Investing in Maple Stock
Maple Leaf financial ratios help investors to determine whether Maple Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Maple with respect to the benefits of owning Maple Leaf security.