Mfs International Value Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Under 44.16

MINIX Fund  USD 44.94  0.12  0.27%   
Mfs International's future price is the expected price of Mfs International instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Mfs International Value performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Mfs International Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, Mfs International Correlation, Mfs International Hype Analysis, Mfs International Volatility, Mfs International History as well as Mfs International Performance.
  
Please specify Mfs International's target price for which you would like Mfs International odds to be computed.

Mfs International Target Price Odds to finish below 44.16

The tendency of Mfs Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to $ 44.16  or more in 90 days
 44.94 90 days 44.16 
about 11.68
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Mfs International to drop to $ 44.16  or more in 90 days from now is about 11.68 (This Mfs International Value probability density function shows the probability of Mfs Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Mfs International Value price to stay between $ 44.16  and its current price of $44.94 at the end of the 90-day period is about 25.84 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Mfs International has a beta of 0.34. This indicates as returns on the market go up, Mfs International average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Mfs International Value will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Mfs International Value has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial.
   Mfs International Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Mfs International

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Mfs International Value. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
44.1644.9445.72
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
44.2845.0645.84
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
45.0345.8146.60
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
44.0644.4944.91
Details

Mfs International Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Mfs International is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Mfs International's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Mfs International Value, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Mfs International within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
-0.06
β
Beta against Dow Jones0.34
σ
Overall volatility
0.90
Ir
Information ratio -0.19

Mfs International Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Mfs International for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Mfs International Value can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
The fund maintains about 10.79% of its assets in cash

Mfs International Technical Analysis

Mfs International's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Mfs Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Mfs International Value. In general, you should focus on analyzing Mfs Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Mfs International Predictive Forecast Models

Mfs International's time-series forecasting models is one of many Mfs International's mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Mfs International's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Mfs International Value

Checking the ongoing alerts about Mfs International for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Mfs International Value help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
The fund maintains about 10.79% of its assets in cash

Other Information on Investing in Mfs Mutual Fund

Mfs International financial ratios help investors to determine whether Mfs Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Mfs with respect to the benefits of owning Mfs International security.
Competition Analyzer
Analyze and compare many basic indicators for a group of related or unrelated entities
Funds Screener
Find actively-traded funds from around the world traded on over 30 global exchanges
Equity Forecasting
Use basic forecasting models to generate price predictions and determine price momentum
Transaction History
View history of all your transactions and understand their impact on performance