Mfs International Large Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Under 14.02
| MKVDX Fund | USD 14.30 0.01 0.07% |
Mfs |
Mfs International Target Price Odds to finish below 14.02
The tendency of Mfs Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 14.02 or more in 90 days |
| 14.30 | 90 days | 14.02 | about 7.23 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Mfs International to drop to $ 14.02 or more in 90 days from now is about 7.23 (This Mfs International Large probability density function shows the probability of Mfs Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Mfs International Large price to stay between $ 14.02 and its current price of $14.3 at the end of the 90-day period is about 26.75 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Mfs International Large has a beta of -0.0406. This indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Mfs International are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Mfs International Large is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Mfs International Large has an alpha of 0.0015, implying that it can generate a 0.001468 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Mfs International Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Mfs International
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Mfs International Large. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Mfs International's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Mfs International Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Mfs International is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Mfs International's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Mfs International Large, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Mfs International within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.04 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.27 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.16 |
Mfs International Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Mfs International for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Mfs International Large can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Mfs International generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| The fund maintains 97.72% of its assets in stocks |
Mfs International Technical Analysis
Mfs International's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Mfs Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Mfs International Large. In general, you should focus on analyzing Mfs Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Mfs International Predictive Forecast Models
Mfs International's time-series forecasting models is one of many Mfs International's mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Mfs International's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Mfs International Large
Checking the ongoing alerts about Mfs International for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Mfs International Large help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Mfs International generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| The fund maintains 97.72% of its assets in stocks |
Other Information on Investing in Mfs Mutual Fund
Mfs International financial ratios help investors to determine whether Mfs Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Mfs with respect to the benefits of owning Mfs International security.
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