Manulife Financial Stock Probability of Future Pink Sheet Price Finishing Under 13.98
| MNLCF Stock | USD 14.00 0.00 0.00% |
Manulife |
Manulife Financial Target Price Odds to finish below 13.98
The tendency of Manulife Pink Sheet price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 13.98 or more in 90 days |
| 14.00 | 90 days | 13.98 | about 92.99 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Manulife Financial to drop to $ 13.98 or more in 90 days from now is about 92.99 (This Manulife Financial probability density function shows the probability of Manulife Pink Sheet to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Manulife Financial price to stay between $ 13.98 and its current price of $14.0 at the end of the 90-day period is roughly 2.2 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Manulife Financial has a beta of 0.0471. This indicates as returns on the market go up, Manulife Financial average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Manulife Financial will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Manulife Financial has an alpha of 0.0111, implying that it can generate a 0.0111 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Manulife Financial Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Manulife Financial
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Manulife Financial. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Manulife Financial's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Manulife Financial Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Manulife Financial is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Manulife Financial's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Manulife Financial, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Manulife Financial within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.01 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.05 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.1 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.36 |
Manulife Financial Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Manulife Pink Sheet often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Manulife Financial's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Manulife Financial's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.9 B |
Manulife Financial Technical Analysis
Manulife Financial's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Manulife Pink Sheet technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Manulife Financial. In general, you should focus on analyzing Manulife Pink Sheet price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Manulife Financial Predictive Forecast Models
Manulife Financial's time-series forecasting models is one of many Manulife Financial's pink sheet analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Manulife Financial's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the pink sheet market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Manulife Financial in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Manulife Financial's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Manulife Financial options trading.
Other Information on Investing in Manulife Pink Sheet
Manulife Financial financial ratios help investors to determine whether Manulife Pink Sheet is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Manulife with respect to the benefits of owning Manulife Financial security.