MAROC TELECOM (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 7.6

MSPA Stock   7.65  0.10  1.32%   
MAROC TELECOM's future price is the expected price of MAROC TELECOM instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of MAROC TELECOM performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out MAROC TELECOM Backtesting, MAROC TELECOM Valuation, MAROC TELECOM Correlation, MAROC TELECOM Hype Analysis, MAROC TELECOM Volatility, MAROC TELECOM History as well as MAROC TELECOM Performance.
  
Please specify MAROC TELECOM's target price for which you would like MAROC TELECOM odds to be computed.

MAROC TELECOM Target Price Odds to finish below 7.6

The tendency of MAROC Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to  7.60  or more in 90 days
 7.65 90 days 7.60 
about 10.96
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of MAROC TELECOM to drop to  7.60  or more in 90 days from now is about 10.96 (This MAROC TELECOM probability density function shows the probability of MAROC Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of MAROC TELECOM price to stay between  7.60  and its current price of 7.65 at the end of the 90-day period is about 8.34 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon MAROC TELECOM has a beta of -0.11. This indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding MAROC TELECOM are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, MAROC TELECOM is likely to outperform the market. Additionally MAROC TELECOM has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial.
   MAROC TELECOM Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for MAROC TELECOM

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as MAROC TELECOM. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
6.677.658.63
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
5.746.727.70
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
6.817.808.78
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
7.577.657.73
Details

MAROC TELECOM Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. MAROC TELECOM is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the MAROC TELECOM's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold MAROC TELECOM, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of MAROC TELECOM within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
-0.05
β
Beta against Dow Jones-0.11
σ
Overall volatility
0.14
Ir
Information ratio -0.2

MAROC TELECOM Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of MAROC TELECOM for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for MAROC TELECOM can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
MAROC TELECOM generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days

MAROC TELECOM Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of MAROC Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential MAROC TELECOM's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. MAROC TELECOM's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding879 M
Dividend Yield1.1479
Short Term Investments157 M

MAROC TELECOM Technical Analysis

MAROC TELECOM's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. MAROC Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of MAROC TELECOM. In general, you should focus on analyzing MAROC Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

MAROC TELECOM Predictive Forecast Models

MAROC TELECOM's time-series forecasting models is one of many MAROC TELECOM's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary MAROC TELECOM's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about MAROC TELECOM

Checking the ongoing alerts about MAROC TELECOM for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for MAROC TELECOM help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
MAROC TELECOM generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days

Additional Tools for MAROC Stock Analysis

When running MAROC TELECOM's price analysis, check to measure MAROC TELECOM's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy MAROC TELECOM is operating at the current time. Most of MAROC TELECOM's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of MAROC TELECOM's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move MAROC TELECOM's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of MAROC TELECOM to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.