Microstrategy Incorporated Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 414.35
| MSTR Stock | USD 411.40 34.08 9.03% |
Closest to current price MicroStrategy long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
MicroStrategy |
MicroStrategy Incorporated Target Price Odds to finish over 414.35
The tendency of MicroStrategy Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 414.35 or more in 90 days |
| 411.40 | 90 days | 414.35 | nearly 4.94 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of MicroStrategy Incorporated to move over $ 414.35 or more in 90 days from now is nearly 4.94 (This MicroStrategy Incorporated probability density function shows the probability of MicroStrategy Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of MicroStrategy Incorporated price to stay between its current price of $ 411.40 and $ 414.35 at the end of the 90-day period is near 1 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 2.29 . This indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, MicroStrategy Incorporated will likely underperform. Moreover MicroStrategy Incorporated has an alpha of 1.6421, implying that it can generate a 1.64 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). MicroStrategy Incorporated Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for MicroStrategy Incorporated
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as MicroStrategy Incorporated. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of MicroStrategy Incorporated's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
MicroStrategy Incorporated Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. MicroStrategy Incorporated is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the MicroStrategy Incorporated's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold MicroStrategy Incorporated, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of MicroStrategy Incorporated within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 1.64 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 2.29 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 98.93 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.26 |
MicroStrategy Incorporated Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of MicroStrategy Incorporated for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for MicroStrategy Incorporated can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| MicroStrategy Incorporated is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| MicroStrategy Incorporated appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| MicroStrategy Incorporated currently holds 2.25 B in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 2.82, implying the company greatly relies on financing operations through barrowing. MicroStrategy Incorporated has a current ratio of 0.76, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Note, when we think about MicroStrategy Incorporated's use of debt, we should always consider it together with its cash and equity. | |
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MicroStrategy Incorporated Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of MicroStrategy Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential MicroStrategy Incorporated's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. MicroStrategy Incorporated's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 165.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 46.8 M |
MicroStrategy Incorporated Technical Analysis
MicroStrategy Incorporated's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. MicroStrategy Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of MicroStrategy Incorporated. In general, you should focus on analyzing MicroStrategy Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
MicroStrategy Incorporated Predictive Forecast Models
MicroStrategy Incorporated's time-series forecasting models is one of many MicroStrategy Incorporated's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary MicroStrategy Incorporated's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about MicroStrategy Incorporated
Checking the ongoing alerts about MicroStrategy Incorporated for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for MicroStrategy Incorporated help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| MicroStrategy Incorporated is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| MicroStrategy Incorporated appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| MicroStrategy Incorporated currently holds 2.25 B in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 2.82, implying the company greatly relies on financing operations through barrowing. MicroStrategy Incorporated has a current ratio of 0.76, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Note, when we think about MicroStrategy Incorporated's use of debt, we should always consider it together with its cash and equity. | |
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Additional Tools for MicroStrategy Stock Analysis
When running MicroStrategy Incorporated's price analysis, check to measure MicroStrategy Incorporated's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy MicroStrategy Incorporated is operating at the current time. Most of MicroStrategy Incorporated's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of MicroStrategy Incorporated's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move MicroStrategy Incorporated's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of MicroStrategy Incorporated to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.