Natures Sunshine Products Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 14.98
| NATR Stock | USD 15.00 0.13 0.86% |
Natures |
Natures Sunshine Target Price Odds to finish below 14.98
The tendency of Natures Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 14.98 or more in 90 days |
| 15.00 | 90 days | 14.98 | about 63.89 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Natures Sunshine to drop to $ 14.98 or more in 90 days from now is about 63.89 (This Natures Sunshine Products probability density function shows the probability of Natures Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Natures Sunshine Products price to stay between $ 14.98 and its current price of $15.0 at the end of the 90-day period is near 1 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 2.06 . This indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Natures Sunshine will likely underperform. Additionally Natures Sunshine Products has an alpha of 0.1592, implying that it can generate a 0.16 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Natures Sunshine Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Natures Sunshine
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Natures Sunshine Products. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Natures Sunshine's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Natures Sunshine Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Natures Sunshine is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Natures Sunshine's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Natures Sunshine Products, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Natures Sunshine within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.16 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 2.06 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.42 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.06 |
Natures Sunshine Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Natures Sunshine for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Natures Sunshine Products can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Natures Sunshine had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Natures Sunshine is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Natures Sunshine has a very strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| About 68.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Natures Answer Introduces PerioBrite Kids Toothpaste - a Gentle Solution for Childrens Oral Health With a Delicious Strawberry Taste |
Natures Sunshine Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Natures Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Natures Sunshine's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Natures Sunshine's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 19.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 82.4 M |
Natures Sunshine Technical Analysis
Natures Sunshine's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Natures Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Natures Sunshine Products. In general, you should focus on analyzing Natures Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Natures Sunshine Predictive Forecast Models
Natures Sunshine's time-series forecasting models is one of many Natures Sunshine's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Natures Sunshine's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Natures Sunshine Products
Checking the ongoing alerts about Natures Sunshine for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Natures Sunshine Products help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Natures Sunshine had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Natures Sunshine is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Natures Sunshine has a very strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| About 68.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Natures Answer Introduces PerioBrite Kids Toothpaste - a Gentle Solution for Childrens Oral Health With a Delicious Strawberry Taste |
Additional Tools for Natures Stock Analysis
When running Natures Sunshine's price analysis, check to measure Natures Sunshine's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Natures Sunshine is operating at the current time. Most of Natures Sunshine's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Natures Sunshine's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Natures Sunshine's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Natures Sunshine to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.