NCL International (Thailand) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 0.41
| NCL Stock | THB 0.43 0.02 4.44% |
NCL |
NCL International Target Price Odds to finish below 0.41
The tendency of NCL Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 0.41 or more in 90 days |
| 0.43 | 90 days | 0.41 | about 13.94 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of NCL International to drop to 0.41 or more in 90 days from now is about 13.94 (This NCL International Logistics probability density function shows the probability of NCL Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of NCL International price to stay between 0.41 and its current price of 0.43 at the end of the 90-day period is about 6.04 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon NCL International has a beta of 0.64. This indicates as returns on the market go up, NCL International average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding NCL International Logistics will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally NCL International Logistics has an alpha of 0.0731, implying that it can generate a 0.0731 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). NCL International Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for NCL International
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as NCL International. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.NCL International Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. NCL International is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the NCL International's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold NCL International Logistics, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of NCL International within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.07 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.64 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.08 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.01 |
NCL International Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of NCL International for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for NCL International can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| NCL International generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| NCL International has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| NCL International has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| NCL International has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| NCL International Logistics has accumulated 68.65 M in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 80.4, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. NCL International has a current ratio of 0.77, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist NCL International until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, NCL International's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like NCL International sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for NCL to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about NCL International's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| About 39.0% of NCL International outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
NCL International Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of NCL Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential NCL International's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. NCL International's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 466.2 M |
NCL International Technical Analysis
NCL International's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. NCL Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of NCL International Logistics. In general, you should focus on analyzing NCL Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
NCL International Predictive Forecast Models
NCL International's time-series forecasting models is one of many NCL International's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary NCL International's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about NCL International
Checking the ongoing alerts about NCL International for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for NCL International help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| NCL International generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| NCL International has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| NCL International has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| NCL International has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| NCL International Logistics has accumulated 68.65 M in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 80.4, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. NCL International has a current ratio of 0.77, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist NCL International until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, NCL International's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like NCL International sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for NCL to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about NCL International's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| About 39.0% of NCL International outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
Other Information on Investing in NCL Stock
NCL International financial ratios help investors to determine whether NCL Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in NCL with respect to the benefits of owning NCL International security.