Noble Plc Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 36.17
| NE Stock | USD 33.25 0.65 1.92% |
Closest to current price Noble long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
Noble |
Noble Plc Target Price Odds to finish over 36.17
The tendency of Noble Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 36.17 or more in 90 days |
| 33.25 | 90 days | 36.17 | about 17.13 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Noble Plc to move over $ 36.17 or more in 90 days from now is about 17.13 (This Noble plc probability density function shows the probability of Noble Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Noble plc price to stay between its current price of $ 33.25 and $ 36.17 at the end of the 90-day period is about 58.98 .
Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.58 . This indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Noble Plc will likely underperform. Additionally Noble plc has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Noble Plc Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Noble Plc
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Noble plc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Noble Plc's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Noble Plc Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Noble Plc is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Noble Plc's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Noble plc, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Noble Plc within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.3 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.58 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.76 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.09 |
Noble Plc Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Noble Plc for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Noble plc can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Noble plc generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Noble plc has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| Over 79.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: ARRAY Technologies Names H. Keith Jennings as Chief Financial Officer |
Noble Plc Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Noble Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Noble Plc's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Noble Plc's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 145.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 360.8 M |
Noble Plc Technical Analysis
Noble Plc's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Noble Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Noble plc. In general, you should focus on analyzing Noble Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Noble Plc Predictive Forecast Models
Noble Plc's time-series forecasting models is one of many Noble Plc's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Noble Plc's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Noble plc
Checking the ongoing alerts about Noble Plc for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Noble plc help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Noble plc generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Noble plc has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| Over 79.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: ARRAY Technologies Names H. Keith Jennings as Chief Financial Officer |
Check out Noble Plc Backtesting, Noble Plc Valuation, Noble Plc Correlation, Noble Plc Hype Analysis, Noble Plc Volatility, Noble Plc History as well as Noble Plc Performance. For information on how to trade Noble Stock refer to our How to Trade Noble Stock guide.You can also try the Equity Forecasting module to use basic forecasting models to generate price predictions and determine price momentum.
Is Energy Equipment & Services space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Noble Plc. If investors know Noble will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Noble Plc listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.63) | Dividend Share 1.7 | Earnings Share 3.4 | Revenue Per Share 18.385 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.138 |
The market value of Noble plc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Noble that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Noble Plc's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Noble Plc's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Noble Plc's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Noble Plc's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Noble Plc's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Noble Plc is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Noble Plc's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.