Nelly Group (Sweden) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 28.46
| NELLY Stock | SEK 30.00 0.80 2.74% |
Nelly |
Nelly Group Target Price Odds to finish below 28.46
The tendency of Nelly Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to kr 28.46 or more in 90 days |
| 30.00 | 90 days | 28.46 | about 72.62 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Nelly Group to drop to kr 28.46 or more in 90 days from now is about 72.62 (This Nelly Group AB probability density function shows the probability of Nelly Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Nelly Group AB price to stay between kr 28.46 and its current price of kr30.0 at the end of the 90-day period is about 19.2 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Nelly Group AB has a beta of -0.2. This indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Nelly Group are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Nelly Group AB is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Nelly Group AB has an alpha of 0.1361, implying that it can generate a 0.14 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Nelly Group Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Nelly Group
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Nelly Group AB. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Nelly Group's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Nelly Group Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Nelly Group is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Nelly Group's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Nelly Group AB, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Nelly Group within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.14 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.2 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.93 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0 |
Nelly Group Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Nelly Group for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Nelly Group AB can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Nelly Group AB has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the revenue of 1.43 B. Net Loss for the year was (47.8 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 566.3 M. | |
| About 30.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
Nelly Group Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Nelly Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Nelly Group's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Nelly Group's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 18 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 197.5 M |
Nelly Group Technical Analysis
Nelly Group's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Nelly Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Nelly Group AB. In general, you should focus on analyzing Nelly Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Nelly Group Predictive Forecast Models
Nelly Group's time-series forecasting models is one of many Nelly Group's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Nelly Group's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Nelly Group AB
Checking the ongoing alerts about Nelly Group for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Nelly Group AB help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Nelly Group AB has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the revenue of 1.43 B. Net Loss for the year was (47.8 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 566.3 M. | |
| About 30.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
Additional Tools for Nelly Stock Analysis
When running Nelly Group's price analysis, check to measure Nelly Group's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Nelly Group is operating at the current time. Most of Nelly Group's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Nelly Group's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Nelly Group's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Nelly Group to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.