Newgen Software (India) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 434.84
| NEWGEN Stock | 1,574 51.80 3.40% |
Newgen |
Newgen Software Target Price Odds to finish below 434.84
The tendency of Newgen Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 434.84 or more in 90 days |
| 1,574 | 90 days | 434.84 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Newgen Software to drop to 434.84 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Newgen Software Technologies probability density function shows the probability of Newgen Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Newgen Software Tech price to stay between 434.84 and its current price of 1574.05 at the end of the 90-day period is close to 99 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Newgen Software has a beta of 0.74. This indicates as returns on the market go up, Newgen Software average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Newgen Software Technologies will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Newgen Software Technologies has an alpha of 0.4362, implying that it can generate a 0.44 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Newgen Software Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Newgen Software
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Newgen Software Tech. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Newgen Software's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Newgen Software Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Newgen Software is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Newgen Software's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Newgen Software Technologies, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Newgen Software within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.44 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.74 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 107.07 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.12 |
Newgen Software Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Newgen Software for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Newgen Software Tech can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Newgen Software Tech had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Newgen Software Tech is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| About 64.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Newgen Software Share Price Soars to All-Time High - Analytics Insight |
Newgen Software Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Newgen Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Newgen Software's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Newgen Software's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 143.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 7.4 B |
Newgen Software Technical Analysis
Newgen Software's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Newgen Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Newgen Software Technologies. In general, you should focus on analyzing Newgen Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Newgen Software Predictive Forecast Models
Newgen Software's time-series forecasting models is one of many Newgen Software's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Newgen Software's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Newgen Software Tech
Checking the ongoing alerts about Newgen Software for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Newgen Software Tech help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Newgen Software Tech had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Newgen Software Tech is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| About 64.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Newgen Software Share Price Soars to All-Time High - Analytics Insight |
Other Information on Investing in Newgen Stock
Newgen Software financial ratios help investors to determine whether Newgen Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Newgen with respect to the benefits of owning Newgen Software security.