New Pacific Metals Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 1.53
| NEWP Stock | USD 1.59 0.05 3.25% |
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New Pacific Target Price Odds to finish below 1.53
The tendency of New Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 1.53 or more in 90 days |
| 1.59 | 90 days | 1.53 | about 40.57 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of New Pacific to drop to $ 1.53 or more in 90 days from now is about 40.57 (This New Pacific Metals probability density function shows the probability of New Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of New Pacific Metals price to stay between $ 1.53 and its current price of $1.59 at the end of the 90-day period is about 13.98 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.33 . This indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, New Pacific will likely underperform. Additionally New Pacific Metals has an alpha of 0.265, implying that it can generate a 0.26 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). New Pacific Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for New Pacific
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as New Pacific Metals. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of New Pacific's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
New Pacific Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. New Pacific is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the New Pacific's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold New Pacific Metals, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of New Pacific within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.26 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.33 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.17 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.07 |
New Pacific Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of New Pacific for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for New Pacific Metals can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| New Pacific Metals may become a speculative penny stock | |
| New Pacific Metals had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Net Loss for the year was (6.03 M) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (460.9 K). | |
| New Pacific Metals currently holds about 29.99 M in cash with (4.01 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.19. | |
| Roughly 46.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders | |
| Latest headline from patch.com: Salve Regina University In Newport Getting A New Residence Hall |
New Pacific Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of New Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential New Pacific's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. New Pacific's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 167.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 22.2 M |
New Pacific Technical Analysis
New Pacific's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. New Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of New Pacific Metals. In general, you should focus on analyzing New Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
New Pacific Predictive Forecast Models
New Pacific's time-series forecasting models is one of many New Pacific's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary New Pacific's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about New Pacific Metals
Checking the ongoing alerts about New Pacific for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for New Pacific Metals help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| New Pacific Metals may become a speculative penny stock | |
| New Pacific Metals had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Net Loss for the year was (6.03 M) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (460.9 K). | |
| New Pacific Metals currently holds about 29.99 M in cash with (4.01 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.19. | |
| Roughly 46.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders | |
| Latest headline from patch.com: Salve Regina University In Newport Getting A New Residence Hall |
Additional Tools for New Stock Analysis
When running New Pacific's price analysis, check to measure New Pacific's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy New Pacific is operating at the current time. Most of New Pacific's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of New Pacific's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move New Pacific's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of New Pacific to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.