NATIONAL INVESTMENT (Malawi) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 438.93
| NITL Stock | 440.00 0.00 0.00% |
NATIONAL |
NATIONAL INVESTMENT Target Price Odds to finish below 438.93
The tendency of NATIONAL Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 438.93 or more in 90 days |
| 440.00 | 90 days | 438.93 | about 99.0 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of NATIONAL INVESTMENT to drop to 438.93 or more in 90 days from now is about 99.0 (This NATIONAL INVESTMENT TRUST probability density function shows the probability of NATIONAL Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of NATIONAL INVESTMENT TRUST price to stay between 438.93 and its current price of 440.0 at the end of the 90-day period is near 1 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon NATIONAL INVESTMENT TRUST has a beta of -0.0789. This indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding NATIONAL INVESTMENT are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, NATIONAL INVESTMENT TRUST is likely to outperform the market. Additionally NATIONAL INVESTMENT TRUST has an alpha of 0.1037, implying that it can generate a 0.1 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). NATIONAL INVESTMENT Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for NATIONAL INVESTMENT
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as NATIONAL INVESTMENT TRUST. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.NATIONAL INVESTMENT Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. NATIONAL INVESTMENT is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the NATIONAL INVESTMENT's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold NATIONAL INVESTMENT TRUST, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of NATIONAL INVESTMENT within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.10 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.08 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 10.76 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.01 |
NATIONAL INVESTMENT Technical Analysis
NATIONAL INVESTMENT's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. NATIONAL Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of NATIONAL INVESTMENT TRUST. In general, you should focus on analyzing NATIONAL Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
NATIONAL INVESTMENT Predictive Forecast Models
NATIONAL INVESTMENT's time-series forecasting models is one of many NATIONAL INVESTMENT's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary NATIONAL INVESTMENT's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards NATIONAL INVESTMENT in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, NATIONAL INVESTMENT's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from NATIONAL INVESTMENT options trading.
Additional Tools for NATIONAL Stock Analysis
When running NATIONAL INVESTMENT's price analysis, check to measure NATIONAL INVESTMENT's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy NATIONAL INVESTMENT is operating at the current time. Most of NATIONAL INVESTMENT's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of NATIONAL INVESTMENT's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move NATIONAL INVESTMENT's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of NATIONAL INVESTMENT to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.