National Grid (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 51.56
| NNGD Stock | EUR 54.00 1.00 1.82% |
National |
National Grid Target Price Odds to finish below 51.56
The tendency of National Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to € 51.56 or more in 90 days |
| 54.00 | 90 days | 51.56 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of National Grid to drop to € 51.56 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This National Grid plc probability density function shows the probability of National Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of National Grid plc price to stay between € 51.56 and its current price of €54.0 at the end of the 90-day period is near 1 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon National Grid has a beta of 0.26. This indicates as returns on the market go up, National Grid average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding National Grid plc will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally National Grid plc has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. National Grid Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for National Grid
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as National Grid plc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of National Grid's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
National Grid Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. National Grid is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the National Grid's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold National Grid plc, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of National Grid within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.15 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.26 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.71 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.1 |
National Grid Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of National Grid for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for National Grid plc can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| National Grid plc generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| National Grid plc has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| National Grid plc has accumulated 32.89 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 153.9, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. National Grid plc has a current ratio of 0.85, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist National Grid until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, National Grid's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like National Grid plc sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for National to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about National Grid's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. |
National Grid Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of National Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential National Grid's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. National Grid's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 3.6 B |
National Grid Technical Analysis
National Grid's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. National Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of National Grid plc. In general, you should focus on analyzing National Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
National Grid Predictive Forecast Models
National Grid's time-series forecasting models is one of many National Grid's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary National Grid's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about National Grid plc
Checking the ongoing alerts about National Grid for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for National Grid plc help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| National Grid plc generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| National Grid plc has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| National Grid plc has accumulated 32.89 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 153.9, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. National Grid plc has a current ratio of 0.85, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist National Grid until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, National Grid's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like National Grid plc sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for National to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about National Grid's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. |
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in National Stock
When determining whether National Grid plc is a strong investment it is important to analyze National Grid's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact National Grid's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding National Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out National Grid Backtesting, National Grid Valuation, National Grid Correlation, National Grid Hype Analysis, National Grid Volatility, National Grid History as well as National Grid Performance. You can also try the Pair Correlation module to compare performance and examine fundamental relationship between any two equity instruments.