Ni Holdings Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 11.22
| NODK Stock | USD 16.50 0.25 1.49% |
NODK |
NI Holdings Target Price Odds to finish below 11.22
The tendency of NODK Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 11.22 or more in 90 days |
| 16.50 | 90 days | 11.22 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of NI Holdings to drop to $ 11.22 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This NI Holdings probability density function shows the probability of NODK Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of NI Holdings price to stay between $ 11.22 and its current price of $16.5 at the end of the 90-day period is about 90.96 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days NI Holdings has a beta of 0.42. This indicates as returns on the market go up, NI Holdings average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding NI Holdings will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally NI Holdings has an alpha of 0.104, implying that it can generate a 0.1 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). NI Holdings Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for NI Holdings
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as NI Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of NI Holdings' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
NI Holdings Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. NI Holdings is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the NI Holdings' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold NI Holdings, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of NI Holdings within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.10 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.42 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.53 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.05 |
NI Holdings Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of NI Holdings for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for NI Holdings can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| NI Holdings currently holds 2.06 M in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 0.64, which is about average as compared to similar companies. NI Holdings has a current ratio of 0.5, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Note, when we think about NI Holdings' use of debt, we should always consider it together with its cash and equity. | |
| The entity reported the previous year's revenue of 365.69 M. Net Loss for the year was (5.48 M) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (69.03 M). | |
| NI Holdings has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| About 68.0% of NI Holdings outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: TCW Group Inc. Sells 50,541 Shares of NI Holdings, Inc. - MarketBeat |
NI Holdings Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of NODK Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential NI Holdings' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. NI Holdings' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 21.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 209.9 M | |
| Shares Float | 5.7 M |
NI Holdings Technical Analysis
NI Holdings' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. NODK Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of NI Holdings. In general, you should focus on analyzing NODK Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
NI Holdings Predictive Forecast Models
NI Holdings' time-series forecasting models is one of many NI Holdings' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary NI Holdings' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about NI Holdings
Checking the ongoing alerts about NI Holdings for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for NI Holdings help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| NI Holdings currently holds 2.06 M in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 0.64, which is about average as compared to similar companies. NI Holdings has a current ratio of 0.5, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Note, when we think about NI Holdings' use of debt, we should always consider it together with its cash and equity. | |
| The entity reported the previous year's revenue of 365.69 M. Net Loss for the year was (5.48 M) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (69.03 M). | |
| NI Holdings has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| About 68.0% of NI Holdings outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: TCW Group Inc. Sells 50,541 Shares of NI Holdings, Inc. - MarketBeat |
Check out NI Holdings Backtesting, NI Holdings Valuation, NI Holdings Correlation, NI Holdings Hype Analysis, NI Holdings Volatility, NI Holdings History as well as NI Holdings Performance. For more information on how to buy NODK Stock please use our How to buy in NODK Stock guide.You can also try the Performance Analysis module to check effects of mean-variance optimization against your current asset allocation.
Is Property & Casualty Insurance space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of NI Holdings. If investors know NODK will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about NI Holdings listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 6.564 | Earnings Share (0.43) | Revenue Per Share 18.702 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.14 | Return On Assets (0) |
The market value of NI Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of NODK that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of NI Holdings' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is NI Holdings' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because NI Holdings' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect NI Holdings' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between NI Holdings' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if NI Holdings is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, NI Holdings' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.