Nova Minerals Limited Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 9.18
| NVA Stock | 11.69 0.39 3.45% |
Nova |
Nova Minerals Target Price Odds to finish below 9.18
The tendency of Nova Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 9.18 or more in 90 days |
| 11.69 | 90 days | 9.18 | about 76.95 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Nova Minerals to drop to 9.18 or more in 90 days from now is about 76.95 (This Nova Minerals Limited probability density function shows the probability of Nova Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Nova Minerals Limited price to stay between 9.18 and its current price of 11.69 at the end of the 90-day period is about 21.67 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Nova Minerals Limited has a beta of -1.2. This indicates as returns on its benchmark rise, returns on holding Nova Minerals Limited are expected to decrease by similarly larger amounts. On the other hand, during market turmoils, Nova Minerals is expected to outperform its benchmark. Moreover Nova Minerals Limited has an alpha of 1.3356, implying that it can generate a 1.34 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Nova Minerals Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Nova Minerals
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Nova Minerals Limited. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Nova Minerals' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Nova Minerals Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Nova Minerals is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Nova Minerals' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Nova Minerals Limited, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Nova Minerals within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 1.34 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -1.2 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.69 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.17 |
Nova Minerals Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Nova Minerals for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Nova Minerals Limited can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Nova Minerals is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Nova Minerals appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Nova Minerals is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Nova Minerals has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Latest headline from globenewswire.com: Nova Minerals Finds Gold up to 141 gt Au from Rock Samples at the Stibium Antimony-Gold Prospect on its Estelle Gold and Critical Minerals Project, in Alaska |
Nova Minerals Technical Analysis
Nova Minerals' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Nova Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Nova Minerals Limited. In general, you should focus on analyzing Nova Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Nova Minerals Predictive Forecast Models
Nova Minerals' time-series forecasting models is one of many Nova Minerals' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Nova Minerals' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Nova Minerals Limited
Checking the ongoing alerts about Nova Minerals for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Nova Minerals Limited help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Nova Minerals is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Nova Minerals appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Nova Minerals is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Nova Minerals has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Latest headline from globenewswire.com: Nova Minerals Finds Gold up to 141 gt Au from Rock Samples at the Stibium Antimony-Gold Prospect on its Estelle Gold and Critical Minerals Project, in Alaska |
Check out Nova Minerals Backtesting, Nova Minerals Valuation, Nova Minerals Correlation, Nova Minerals Hype Analysis, Nova Minerals Volatility, Nova Minerals History as well as Nova Minerals Performance. You can also try the Price Exposure Probability module to analyze equity upside and downside potential for a given time horizon across multiple markets.
Is Precious Metals space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Nova Minerals. If investors know Nova will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Nova Minerals listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Nova Minerals Limited is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Nova that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Nova Minerals' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Nova Minerals' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Nova Minerals' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Nova Minerals' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Nova Minerals' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Nova Minerals is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Nova Minerals' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.