NVIDIA (Brazil) Chance of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 14.85
| NVDC34 Stock | BRL 17.24 0.24 1.41% |
NVIDIA |
NVIDIA Target Price Odds to finish below 14.85
The tendency of NVIDIA Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to R$ 14.85 or more in 90 days |
| 17.24 | 90 days | 14.85 | about 28.02 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of NVIDIA to drop to R$ 14.85 or more in 90 days from now is about 28.02 (This NVIDIA probability density function shows the probability of NVIDIA Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of NVIDIA price to stay between R$ 14.85 and its current price of R$17.24 at the end of the 90-day period is about 51.22 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon NVIDIA has a beta of 0.23. This indicates as returns on the market go up, NVIDIA average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding NVIDIA will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally NVIDIA has an alpha of 0.5048, implying that it can generate a 0.5 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). NVIDIA Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for NVIDIA
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as NVIDIA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.NVIDIA Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. NVIDIA is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the NVIDIA's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold NVIDIA, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of NVIDIA within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.50 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.23 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.71 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.16 |
NVIDIA Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of NVIDIA Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential NVIDIA's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. NVIDIA's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 2.5 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 21.2 B |
NVIDIA Technical Analysis
NVIDIA's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. NVIDIA Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of NVIDIA. In general, you should focus on analyzing NVIDIA Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
NVIDIA Predictive Forecast Models
NVIDIA's time-series forecasting models is one of many NVIDIA's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary NVIDIA's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards NVIDIA in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, NVIDIA's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from NVIDIA options trading.
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in NVIDIA Stock
When determining whether NVIDIA offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of NVIDIA's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Nvidia Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Nvidia Stock:Check out NVIDIA Backtesting, NVIDIA Valuation, NVIDIA Correlation, NVIDIA Hype Analysis, NVIDIA Volatility, NVIDIA History as well as NVIDIA Performance. For information on how to trade NVIDIA Stock refer to our How to Trade NVIDIA Stock guide.You can also try the Portfolio Backtesting module to avoid under-diversification and over-optimization by backtesting your portfolios.