Novonix Ltd Adr Stock Odds of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 1.71
| NVX Stock | USD 1.65 0.01 0.61% |
Novonix |
Novonix Target Price Odds to finish below 1.71
The tendency of Novonix Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under $ 1.71 after 90 days |
| 1.65 | 90 days | 1.71 | about 21.75 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Novonix to stay under $ 1.71 after 90 days from now is about 21.75 (This Novonix Ltd ADR probability density function shows the probability of Novonix Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Novonix Ltd ADR price to stay between its current price of $ 1.65 and $ 1.71 at the end of the 90-day period is about 5.97 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 2.65 . This indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Novonix will likely underperform. Additionally Novonix Ltd ADR has an alpha of 0.417, implying that it can generate a 0.42 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Novonix Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Novonix
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Novonix Ltd ADR. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Novonix's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Novonix Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Novonix is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Novonix's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Novonix Ltd ADR, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Novonix within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.42 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 2.65 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.27 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.06 |
Novonix Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Novonix for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Novonix Ltd ADR can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Novonix Ltd ADR is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Novonix Ltd ADR may become a speculative penny stock | |
| Novonix Ltd ADR appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| The company reported the last year's revenue of 8.05 M. Reported Net Loss for the year was (46.25 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 2.77 M. | |
| Novonix Ltd ADR has about 207.08 M in cash with (36.23 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 1.71, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. | |
| Latest headline from fool.com.au: Why Novonix, HMC, Karoon Energy, and Ventia shares are pushing higher |
Novonix Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Novonix Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Novonix's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Novonix's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 487.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 78.6 M |
Novonix Technical Analysis
Novonix's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Novonix Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Novonix Ltd ADR. In general, you should focus on analyzing Novonix Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Novonix Predictive Forecast Models
Novonix's time-series forecasting models is one of many Novonix's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Novonix's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Novonix Ltd ADR
Checking the ongoing alerts about Novonix for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Novonix Ltd ADR help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Novonix Ltd ADR is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Novonix Ltd ADR may become a speculative penny stock | |
| Novonix Ltd ADR appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| The company reported the last year's revenue of 8.05 M. Reported Net Loss for the year was (46.25 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 2.77 M. | |
| Novonix Ltd ADR has about 207.08 M in cash with (36.23 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 1.71, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. | |
| Latest headline from fool.com.au: Why Novonix, HMC, Karoon Energy, and Ventia shares are pushing higher |
Additional Tools for Novonix Stock Analysis
When running Novonix's price analysis, check to measure Novonix's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Novonix is operating at the current time. Most of Novonix's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Novonix's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Novonix's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Novonix to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.