Natwest Group Plc Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 5.63
| NWG Stock | USD 10.44 0.11 1.04% |
Natwest |
Natwest Group Target Price Odds to finish below 5.63
The tendency of Natwest Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 5.63 or more in 90 days |
| 10.44 | 90 days | 5.63 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Natwest Group to drop to $ 5.63 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Natwest Group PLC probability density function shows the probability of Natwest Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Natwest Group PLC price to stay between $ 5.63 and its current price of $10.44 at the end of the 90-day period is about 92.79 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Natwest Group has a beta of 0.59. This indicates as returns on the market go up, Natwest Group average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Natwest Group PLC will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Natwest Group PLC has an alpha of 0.1959, implying that it can generate a 0.2 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Natwest Group Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Natwest Group
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Natwest Group PLC. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Natwest Group's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Natwest Group Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Natwest Group is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Natwest Group's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Natwest Group PLC, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Natwest Group within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.20 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.59 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.52 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.1 |
Natwest Group Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Natwest Group for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Natwest Group PLC can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Natwest Group PLC has about 375.84 B in cash with (13.37 B) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 38.46, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. | |
| Natwest Group PLC has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Point72 Asset Management L.P. Takes 989,000 Position in NatWest Group plc - MarketBeat |
Natwest Group Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Natwest Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Natwest Group's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Natwest Group's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 9.2 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 114.3 B |
Natwest Group Technical Analysis
Natwest Group's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Natwest Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Natwest Group PLC. In general, you should focus on analyzing Natwest Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Natwest Group Predictive Forecast Models
Natwest Group's time-series forecasting models is one of many Natwest Group's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Natwest Group's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Natwest Group PLC
Checking the ongoing alerts about Natwest Group for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Natwest Group PLC help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Natwest Group PLC has about 375.84 B in cash with (13.37 B) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 38.46, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. | |
| Natwest Group PLC has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Point72 Asset Management L.P. Takes 989,000 Position in NatWest Group plc - MarketBeat |
Check out Natwest Group Backtesting, Natwest Group Valuation, Natwest Group Correlation, Natwest Group Hype Analysis, Natwest Group Volatility, Natwest Group History as well as Natwest Group Performance. You can also try the Options Analysis module to analyze and evaluate options and option chains as a potential hedge for your portfolios.
Is Diversified Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Natwest Group. If investors know Natwest will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Natwest Group listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.429 | Dividend Share 0.235 | Earnings Share 1.32 | Revenue Per Share 3.252 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.074 |
The market value of Natwest Group PLC is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Natwest that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Natwest Group's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Natwest Group's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Natwest Group's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Natwest Group's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Natwest Group's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Natwest Group is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Natwest Group's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.