Ocular Therapeutix Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 13.24
| OCUL Stock | USD 9.89 0.17 1.69% |
Ocular |
Ocular Therapeutix Target Price Odds to finish over 13.24
The tendency of Ocular Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 13.24 or more in 90 days |
| 9.89 | 90 days | 13.24 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Ocular Therapeutix to move over $ 13.24 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Ocular Therapeutix probability density function shows the probability of Ocular Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Ocular Therapeutix price to stay between its current price of $ 9.89 and $ 13.24 at the end of the 90-day period is about 40.01 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.87 . This indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Ocular Therapeutix will likely underperform. Additionally Ocular Therapeutix has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Ocular Therapeutix Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Ocular Therapeutix
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ocular Therapeutix. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Ocular Therapeutix's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Ocular Therapeutix Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Ocular Therapeutix is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Ocular Therapeutix's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Ocular Therapeutix, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Ocular Therapeutix within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.0023 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.87 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.03 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.03 |
Ocular Therapeutix Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Ocular Therapeutix for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Ocular Therapeutix can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Ocular Therapeutix had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 58.44 M. Net Loss for the year was (80.74 M) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (6.51 M). | |
| Ocular Therapeutix currently holds about 134.54 M in cash with (70.23 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 1.75. | |
| Ocular Therapeutix has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Over 91.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from investing.com: Ocular Therapeutix chief scientific officer sells shares worth 26,561 |
Ocular Therapeutix Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Ocular Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Ocular Therapeutix's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Ocular Therapeutix's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 85.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 195.8 M |
Ocular Therapeutix Technical Analysis
Ocular Therapeutix's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Ocular Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Ocular Therapeutix. In general, you should focus on analyzing Ocular Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Ocular Therapeutix Predictive Forecast Models
Ocular Therapeutix's time-series forecasting models is one of many Ocular Therapeutix's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Ocular Therapeutix's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Ocular Therapeutix
Checking the ongoing alerts about Ocular Therapeutix for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Ocular Therapeutix help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Ocular Therapeutix had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 58.44 M. Net Loss for the year was (80.74 M) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (6.51 M). | |
| Ocular Therapeutix currently holds about 134.54 M in cash with (70.23 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 1.75. | |
| Ocular Therapeutix has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Over 91.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from investing.com: Ocular Therapeutix chief scientific officer sells shares worth 26,561 |
Check out Ocular Therapeutix Backtesting, Ocular Therapeutix Valuation, Ocular Therapeutix Correlation, Ocular Therapeutix Hype Analysis, Ocular Therapeutix Volatility, Ocular Therapeutix History as well as Ocular Therapeutix Performance. For more information on how to buy Ocular Stock please use our How to buy in Ocular Stock guide.You can also try the Portfolio Volatility module to check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk.
Is Pharmaceuticals space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Ocular Therapeutix. If investors know Ocular will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Ocular Therapeutix listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (1.29) | Revenue Per Share 0.529 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.083 | Return On Assets (0.22) | Return On Equity (0.73) |
The market value of Ocular Therapeutix is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Ocular that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Ocular Therapeutix's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Ocular Therapeutix's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Ocular Therapeutix's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Ocular Therapeutix's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Ocular Therapeutix's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Ocular Therapeutix is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Ocular Therapeutix's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.