Occidental Petroleum (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 46.17
| OPC Stock | 46.85 1.07 2.23% |
Occidental |
Occidental Petroleum Target Price Odds to finish below 46.17
The tendency of Occidental Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 46.17 or more in 90 days |
| 46.85 | 90 days | 46.17 | about 13.77 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Occidental Petroleum to drop to 46.17 or more in 90 days from now is about 13.77 (This Occidental Petroleum probability density function shows the probability of Occidental Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Occidental Petroleum price to stay between 46.17 and its current price of 46.85 at the end of the 90-day period is about 14.08 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Occidental Petroleum has a beta of 0.13. This indicates as returns on the market go up, Occidental Petroleum average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Occidental Petroleum will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Occidental Petroleum has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Occidental Petroleum Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Occidental Petroleum
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Occidental Petroleum. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Occidental Petroleum's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Occidental Petroleum Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Occidental Petroleum is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Occidental Petroleum's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Occidental Petroleum, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Occidental Petroleum within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.08 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.13 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.36 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.09 |
Occidental Petroleum Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Occidental Petroleum for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Occidental Petroleum can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Occidental Petroleum generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Over 80.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors |
Occidental Petroleum Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Occidental Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Occidental Petroleum's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Occidental Petroleum's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 908.9 M |
Occidental Petroleum Technical Analysis
Occidental Petroleum's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Occidental Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Occidental Petroleum. In general, you should focus on analyzing Occidental Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Occidental Petroleum Predictive Forecast Models
Occidental Petroleum's time-series forecasting models is one of many Occidental Petroleum's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Occidental Petroleum's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Occidental Petroleum
Checking the ongoing alerts about Occidental Petroleum for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Occidental Petroleum help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Occidental Petroleum generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Over 80.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors |
Additional Tools for Occidental Stock Analysis
When running Occidental Petroleum's price analysis, check to measure Occidental Petroleum's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Occidental Petroleum is operating at the current time. Most of Occidental Petroleum's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Occidental Petroleum's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Occidental Petroleum's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Occidental Petroleum to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.