Orchid Island Capital Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 4.29
| ORC Stock | USD 7.79 0.13 1.64% |
Orchid |
Orchid Island Target Price Odds to finish below 4.29
The tendency of Orchid Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 4.29 or more in 90 days |
| 7.79 | 90 days | 4.29 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Orchid Island to drop to $ 4.29 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Orchid Island Capital probability density function shows the probability of Orchid Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Orchid Island Capital price to stay between $ 4.29 and its current price of $7.79 at the end of the 90-day period is about 35.94 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Orchid Island has a beta of 0.31. This indicates as returns on the market go up, Orchid Island average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Orchid Island Capital will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Orchid Island Capital has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Orchid Island Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Orchid Island
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Orchid Island Capital. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Orchid Island Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Orchid Island is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Orchid Island's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Orchid Island Capital, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Orchid Island within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.07 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.31 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.14 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.13 |
Orchid Island Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Orchid Island for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Orchid Island Capital can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Orchid Island generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Orchid Island has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Orchid Island Capital has 3.71 B in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 7.51, demonstrating that the company may be unable to create cash to meet all of its financial commitments. Orchid Island Capital has a current ratio of 0.12, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Note however, debt could still be an excellent tool for Orchid to invest in growth at high rates of return. | |
| The entity reported the last year's revenue of 154.93 M. Reported Net Loss for the year was (39.23 M) with loss before taxes, overhead, and interest of (243.88 M). | |
| Orchid Island has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| On 27th of November 2024 Orchid Island paid $ 0.12 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from zacks.com: Acquisition by Ava Parker of 938 shares of Orchid Island subject to Rule 16b-3 |
Orchid Island Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Orchid Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Orchid Island's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Orchid Island's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 44.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 320.7 M |
Orchid Island Technical Analysis
Orchid Island's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Orchid Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Orchid Island Capital. In general, you should focus on analyzing Orchid Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Orchid Island Predictive Forecast Models
Orchid Island's time-series forecasting models is one of many Orchid Island's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Orchid Island's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Orchid Island Capital
Checking the ongoing alerts about Orchid Island for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Orchid Island Capital help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Orchid Island generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Orchid Island has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Orchid Island Capital has 3.71 B in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 7.51, demonstrating that the company may be unable to create cash to meet all of its financial commitments. Orchid Island Capital has a current ratio of 0.12, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Note however, debt could still be an excellent tool for Orchid to invest in growth at high rates of return. | |
| The entity reported the last year's revenue of 154.93 M. Reported Net Loss for the year was (39.23 M) with loss before taxes, overhead, and interest of (243.88 M). | |
| Orchid Island has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| On 27th of November 2024 Orchid Island paid $ 0.12 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from zacks.com: Acquisition by Ava Parker of 938 shares of Orchid Island subject to Rule 16b-3 |
Check out Orchid Island Backtesting, Orchid Island Valuation, Orchid Island Correlation, Orchid Island Hype Analysis, Orchid Island Volatility, Orchid Island History as well as Orchid Island Performance. You can also try the ETFs module to find actively traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) from around the world.
Is Mortgage Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Orchid Island. If investors know Orchid will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Orchid Island listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 3.179 | Dividend Share 1.44 | Earnings Share 1.22 | Revenue Per Share 1.292 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 1.755 |
The market value of Orchid Island Capital is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Orchid that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Orchid Island's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Orchid Island's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Orchid Island's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Orchid Island's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Orchid Island's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Orchid Island is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Orchid Island's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.