Oxford Lane Capital Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 23.39
| OXLCL Stock | USD 23.54 0.32 1.34% |
Oxford |
Oxford Lane Target Price Odds to finish below 23.39
The tendency of Oxford Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 23.39 or more in 90 days |
| 23.54 | 90 days | 23.39 | about 10.65 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Oxford Lane to drop to $ 23.39 or more in 90 days from now is about 10.65 (This Oxford Lane Capital probability density function shows the probability of Oxford Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Oxford Lane Capital price to stay between $ 23.39 and its current price of $23.54 at the end of the 90-day period is about 11.89 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Oxford Lane has a beta of 0.0277. This indicates as returns on the market go up, Oxford Lane average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Oxford Lane Capital will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Oxford Lane Capital has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Oxford Lane Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Oxford Lane
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Oxford Lane Capital. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Oxford Lane's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Oxford Lane Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Oxford Lane is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Oxford Lane's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Oxford Lane Capital, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Oxford Lane within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.0072 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.03 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.31 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.18 |
Oxford Lane Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Oxford Lane for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Oxford Lane Capital can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Oxford Lane Capital generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Oxford Lane Capital is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Oxford Lane generates negative cash flow from operations | |
| Latest headline from thelincolnianonline.com: Oxford Lane Capital Corp. 6.75 percent Notes due 2031 Announces Quarterly Dividend of 0.42 |
Oxford Lane Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Oxford Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Oxford Lane's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Oxford Lane's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 209.9 M | |
| Dividends Paid | 166.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 43 M |
Oxford Lane Technical Analysis
Oxford Lane's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Oxford Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Oxford Lane Capital. In general, you should focus on analyzing Oxford Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Oxford Lane Predictive Forecast Models
Oxford Lane's time-series forecasting models is one of many Oxford Lane's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Oxford Lane's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Oxford Lane Capital
Checking the ongoing alerts about Oxford Lane for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Oxford Lane Capital help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Oxford Lane Capital generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Oxford Lane Capital is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Oxford Lane generates negative cash flow from operations | |
| Latest headline from thelincolnianonline.com: Oxford Lane Capital Corp. 6.75 percent Notes due 2031 Announces Quarterly Dividend of 0.42 |
Check out Oxford Lane Backtesting, Oxford Lane Valuation, Oxford Lane Correlation, Oxford Lane Hype Analysis, Oxford Lane Volatility, Oxford Lane History as well as Oxford Lane Performance. You can also try the Efficient Frontier module to plot and analyze your portfolio and positions against risk-return landscape of the market..
Is Stock space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Oxford Lane. If investors know Oxford will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Oxford Lane listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Return On Equity 0.6703 |
The market value of Oxford Lane Capital is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Oxford that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Oxford Lane's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Oxford Lane's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Oxford Lane's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Oxford Lane's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Oxford Lane's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Oxford Lane is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Oxford Lane's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.