Occidental Petroleum (Brazil) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 49.83
| OXYP34 Stock | BRL 48.08 0.40 0.83% |
Occidental |
Occidental Petroleum Target Price Odds to finish over 49.83
The tendency of Occidental Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over R$ 49.83 or more in 90 days |
| 48.08 | 90 days | 49.83 | about 17.73 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Occidental Petroleum to move over R$ 49.83 or more in 90 days from now is about 17.73 (This Occidental Petroleum probability density function shows the probability of Occidental Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Occidental Petroleum price to stay between its current price of R$ 48.08 and R$ 49.83 at the end of the 90-day period is about 52.13 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Occidental Petroleum has a beta of -0.39. This indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Occidental Petroleum are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Occidental Petroleum is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Occidental Petroleum has an alpha of 0.0459, implying that it can generate a 0.0459 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Occidental Petroleum Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Occidental Petroleum
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Occidental Petroleum. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Occidental Petroleum Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Occidental Petroleum is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Occidental Petroleum's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Occidental Petroleum, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Occidental Petroleum within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.05 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.39 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.21 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.01 |
Occidental Petroleum Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Occidental Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Occidental Petroleum's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Occidental Petroleum's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 934.1 M |
Occidental Petroleum Technical Analysis
Occidental Petroleum's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Occidental Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Occidental Petroleum. In general, you should focus on analyzing Occidental Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Occidental Petroleum Predictive Forecast Models
Occidental Petroleum's time-series forecasting models is one of many Occidental Petroleum's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Occidental Petroleum's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Occidental Petroleum in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Occidental Petroleum's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Occidental Petroleum options trading.
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Occidental Stock
When determining whether Occidental Petroleum offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Occidental Petroleum's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Occidental Petroleum Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Occidental Petroleum Stock:Check out Occidental Petroleum Backtesting, Occidental Petroleum Valuation, Occidental Petroleum Correlation, Occidental Petroleum Hype Analysis, Occidental Petroleum Volatility, Occidental Petroleum History as well as Occidental Petroleum Performance. For information on how to trade Occidental Stock refer to our How to Trade Occidental Stock guide.You can also try the Equity Forecasting module to use basic forecasting models to generate price predictions and determine price momentum.