PacWest Bancorp Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 12.20
| PACWPDelisted Stock | USD 14.70 0.28 1.94% |
PacWest |
PacWest Bancorp Target Price Odds to finish below 12.20
The tendency of PacWest Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 12.20 or more in 90 days |
| 14.70 | 90 days | 12.20 | about 37.97 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of PacWest Bancorp to drop to $ 12.20 or more in 90 days from now is about 37.97 (This PacWest Bancorp probability density function shows the probability of PacWest Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of PacWest Bancorp price to stay between $ 12.20 and its current price of $14.7 at the end of the 90-day period is about 44.57 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.05 indicating PacWest Bancorp market returns are sensible to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, PacWest Bancorp is expected to follow. Additionally PacWest Bancorp has an alpha of 0.771, implying that it can generate a 0.77 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). PacWest Bancorp Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for PacWest Bancorp
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as PacWest Bancorp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of PacWest Bancorp's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
PacWest Bancorp Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. PacWest Bancorp is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the PacWest Bancorp's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold PacWest Bancorp, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of PacWest Bancorp within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.77 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.05 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.01 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.07 |
PacWest Bancorp Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of PacWest Bancorp for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for PacWest Bancorp can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| PacWest Bancorp is not yet fully synchronised with the market data | |
| PacWest Bancorp has a very high chance of going through financial distress in the upcoming years |
PacWest Bancorp Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of PacWest Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential PacWest Bancorp's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. PacWest Bancorp's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 117.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 7.1 B |
PacWest Bancorp Technical Analysis
PacWest Bancorp's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. PacWest Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of PacWest Bancorp. In general, you should focus on analyzing PacWest Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
PacWest Bancorp Predictive Forecast Models
PacWest Bancorp's time-series forecasting models is one of many PacWest Bancorp's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary PacWest Bancorp's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about PacWest Bancorp
Checking the ongoing alerts about PacWest Bancorp for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for PacWest Bancorp help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| PacWest Bancorp is not yet fully synchronised with the market data | |
| PacWest Bancorp has a very high chance of going through financial distress in the upcoming years |
Check out Your Equity Center to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in housing. You can also try the Portfolio Volatility module to check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk.
Other Consideration for investing in PacWest Stock
If you are still planning to invest in PacWest Bancorp check if it may still be traded through OTC markets such as Pink Sheets or OTC Bulletin Board. You may also purchase it directly from the company, but this is not always possible and may require contacting the company directly. Please note that delisted stocks are often considered to be more risky investments, as they are no longer subject to the same regulatory and reporting requirements as listed stocks. Therefore, it is essential to carefully research the PacWest Bancorp's history and understand the potential risks before investing.
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