PagSeguro Digital (Brazil) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 11.77
| PAGS34 Stock | BRL 8.88 0.42 4.52% |
PagSeguro |
PagSeguro Digital Target Price Odds to finish over 11.77
The tendency of PagSeguro Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over R$ 11.77 or more in 90 days |
| 8.88 | 90 days | 11.77 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of PagSeguro Digital to move over R$ 11.77 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This PagSeguro Digital probability density function shows the probability of PagSeguro Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of PagSeguro Digital price to stay between its current price of R$ 8.88 and R$ 11.77 at the end of the 90-day period is about 83.83 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon PagSeguro Digital has a beta of 0.85 indicating PagSeguro Digital market returns are sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, PagSeguro Digital is expected to follow. Additionally PagSeguro Digital has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. PagSeguro Digital Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for PagSeguro Digital
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as PagSeguro Digital. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.PagSeguro Digital Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. PagSeguro Digital is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the PagSeguro Digital's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold PagSeguro Digital, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of PagSeguro Digital within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.57 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.85 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.82 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.22 |
PagSeguro Digital Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of PagSeguro Digital for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for PagSeguro Digital can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| PagSeguro Digital generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days |
PagSeguro Digital Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of PagSeguro Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential PagSeguro Digital's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. PagSeguro Digital's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 327.9 M |
PagSeguro Digital Technical Analysis
PagSeguro Digital's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. PagSeguro Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of PagSeguro Digital. In general, you should focus on analyzing PagSeguro Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
PagSeguro Digital Predictive Forecast Models
PagSeguro Digital's time-series forecasting models is one of many PagSeguro Digital's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary PagSeguro Digital's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about PagSeguro Digital
Checking the ongoing alerts about PagSeguro Digital for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for PagSeguro Digital help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| PagSeguro Digital generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days |
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in PagSeguro Stock
When determining whether PagSeguro Digital is a strong investment it is important to analyze PagSeguro Digital's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact PagSeguro Digital's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding PagSeguro Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out PagSeguro Digital Backtesting, PagSeguro Digital Valuation, PagSeguro Digital Correlation, PagSeguro Digital Hype Analysis, PagSeguro Digital Volatility, PagSeguro Digital History as well as PagSeguro Digital Performance. For information on how to trade PagSeguro Stock refer to our How to Trade PagSeguro Stock guide.You can also try the Share Portfolio module to track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device.