Pertamina Geothermal (Indonesia) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 949.16
| PGEO Stock | 955.00 5.00 0.52% |
Pertamina |
Pertamina Geothermal Target Price Odds to finish below 949.16
The tendency of Pertamina Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 949.16 or more in 90 days |
| 955.00 | 90 days | 949.16 | roughly 2.72 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Pertamina Geothermal to drop to 949.16 or more in 90 days from now is roughly 2.72 (This Pertamina Geothermal Energy probability density function shows the probability of Pertamina Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Pertamina Geothermal price to stay between 949.16 and its current price of 955.0 at the end of the 90-day period is near 1 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Pertamina Geothermal has a beta of 0.19 indicating as returns on the market go up, Pertamina Geothermal average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Pertamina Geothermal Energy will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Pertamina Geothermal Energy has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Pertamina Geothermal Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Pertamina Geothermal
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Pertamina Geothermal. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Pertamina Geothermal Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Pertamina Geothermal is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Pertamina Geothermal's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Pertamina Geothermal Energy, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Pertamina Geothermal within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.27 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.19 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 69.54 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.24 |
Pertamina Geothermal Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Pertamina Geothermal for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Pertamina Geothermal can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Pertamina Geothermal generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days |
Pertamina Geothermal Technical Analysis
Pertamina Geothermal's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Pertamina Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Pertamina Geothermal Energy. In general, you should focus on analyzing Pertamina Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Pertamina Geothermal Predictive Forecast Models
Pertamina Geothermal's time-series forecasting models is one of many Pertamina Geothermal's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Pertamina Geothermal's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Pertamina Geothermal
Checking the ongoing alerts about Pertamina Geothermal for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Pertamina Geothermal help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Pertamina Geothermal generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days |