Pimco Global Incme Fund Probability of Future Fund Price Finishing Over 7.36
| PGI-UN Fund | CAD 7.44 0.02 0.27% |
PIMCO |
PIMCO Global Target Price Odds to finish over 7.36
The tendency of PIMCO Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above C$ 7.36 in 90 days |
| 7.44 | 90 days | 7.36 | about 89.84 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of PIMCO Global to stay above C$ 7.36 in 90 days from now is about 89.84 (This PIMCO Global Incme probability density function shows the probability of PIMCO Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of PIMCO Global Incme price to stay between C$ 7.36 and its current price of C$7.44 at the end of the 90-day period is about 19.11 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon PIMCO Global Incme has a beta of -0.0268 indicating as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding PIMCO Global are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, PIMCO Global Incme is likely to outperform the market. Additionally PIMCO Global Incme has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. PIMCO Global Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for PIMCO Global
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as PIMCO Global Incme. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of PIMCO Global's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
PIMCO Global Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. PIMCO Global is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the PIMCO Global's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold PIMCO Global Incme, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of PIMCO Global within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.005 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.03 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.11 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.16 |
PIMCO Global Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of PIMCO Fund often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential PIMCO Global's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. PIMCO Global's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day | 53.12k | |
| Average Daily Volume In Three Month | 53.12k |
PIMCO Global Technical Analysis
PIMCO Global's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. PIMCO Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of PIMCO Global Incme. In general, you should focus on analyzing PIMCO Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
PIMCO Global Predictive Forecast Models
PIMCO Global's time-series forecasting models is one of many PIMCO Global's fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary PIMCO Global's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards PIMCO Global in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, PIMCO Global's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from PIMCO Global options trading.
Other Information on Investing in PIMCO Fund
PIMCO Global financial ratios help investors to determine whether PIMCO Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in PIMCO with respect to the benefits of owning PIMCO Global security.
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