PATRICK INDUSTR (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 91.28
| PK2 Stock | 79.00 0.50 0.63% |
PATRICK |
PATRICK INDUSTR Target Price Odds to finish over 91.28
The tendency of PATRICK Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over 91.28 or more in 90 days |
| 79.00 | 90 days | 91.28 | about 1.73 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of PATRICK INDUSTR to move over 91.28 or more in 90 days from now is about 1.73 (This PATRICK INDUSTR probability density function shows the probability of PATRICK Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of PATRICK INDUSTR price to stay between its current price of 79.00 and 91.28 at the end of the 90-day period is about 86.7 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon PATRICK INDUSTR has a beta of -0.6 indicating as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding PATRICK INDUSTR are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, PATRICK INDUSTR is likely to outperform the market. Additionally PATRICK INDUSTR has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. PATRICK INDUSTR Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for PATRICK INDUSTR
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as PATRICK INDUSTR. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of PATRICK INDUSTR's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
PATRICK INDUSTR Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. PATRICK INDUSTR is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the PATRICK INDUSTR's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold PATRICK INDUSTR, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of PATRICK INDUSTR within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.11 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.6 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 3.71 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.08 |
PATRICK INDUSTR Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of PATRICK INDUSTR for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for PATRICK INDUSTR can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| PATRICK INDUSTR generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days |
PATRICK INDUSTR Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of PATRICK Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential PATRICK INDUSTR's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. PATRICK INDUSTR's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 23.5 M | |
| Dividends Paid | 27 M | |
| Short Long Term Debt | 7.5 M |
PATRICK INDUSTR Technical Analysis
PATRICK INDUSTR's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. PATRICK Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of PATRICK INDUSTR. In general, you should focus on analyzing PATRICK Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
PATRICK INDUSTR Predictive Forecast Models
PATRICK INDUSTR's time-series forecasting models is one of many PATRICK INDUSTR's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary PATRICK INDUSTR's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about PATRICK INDUSTR
Checking the ongoing alerts about PATRICK INDUSTR for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for PATRICK INDUSTR help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| PATRICK INDUSTR generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days |
Additional Tools for PATRICK Stock Analysis
When running PATRICK INDUSTR's price analysis, check to measure PATRICK INDUSTR's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy PATRICK INDUSTR is operating at the current time. Most of PATRICK INDUSTR's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of PATRICK INDUSTR's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move PATRICK INDUSTR's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of PATRICK INDUSTR to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.