Asia Pacific (Indonesia) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 21.96
| POLY Stock | IDR 20.00 1.00 4.76% |
Asia |
Asia Pacific Target Price Odds to finish below 21.96
The tendency of Asia Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under 21.96 after 90 days |
| 20.00 | 90 days | 21.96 | about 44.5 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Asia Pacific to stay under 21.96 after 90 days from now is about 44.5 (This Asia Pacific Fibers probability density function shows the probability of Asia Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Asia Pacific Fibers price to stay between its current price of 20.00 and 21.96 at the end of the 90-day period is about 14.71 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Asia Pacific Fibers has a beta of -0.11 indicating as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Asia Pacific are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Asia Pacific Fibers is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Asia Pacific Fibers has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Asia Pacific Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Asia Pacific
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Asia Pacific Fibers. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Asia Pacific Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Asia Pacific is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Asia Pacific's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Asia Pacific Fibers, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Asia Pacific within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.53 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.11 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 5.00 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.17 |
Asia Pacific Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Asia Pacific for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Asia Pacific Fibers can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Asia Pacific Fibers generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Asia Pacific Fibers has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Asia Pacific Fibers has accumulated 54.97 M in total debt. Asia Pacific Fibers has a current ratio of 0.11, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Asia Pacific until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Asia Pacific's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Asia Pacific Fibers sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Asia to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Asia Pacific's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| Asia Pacific Fibers has accumulated about 4.61 M in cash with (1.79 M) of positive cash flow from operations. | |
| Roughly 64.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
Asia Pacific Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Asia Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Asia Pacific's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Asia Pacific's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 2.5 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 9 M |
Asia Pacific Technical Analysis
Asia Pacific's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Asia Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Asia Pacific Fibers. In general, you should focus on analyzing Asia Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Asia Pacific Predictive Forecast Models
Asia Pacific's time-series forecasting models is one of many Asia Pacific's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Asia Pacific's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Asia Pacific Fibers
Checking the ongoing alerts about Asia Pacific for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Asia Pacific Fibers help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Asia Pacific Fibers generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Asia Pacific Fibers has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Asia Pacific Fibers has accumulated 54.97 M in total debt. Asia Pacific Fibers has a current ratio of 0.11, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Asia Pacific until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Asia Pacific's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Asia Pacific Fibers sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Asia to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Asia Pacific's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| Asia Pacific Fibers has accumulated about 4.61 M in cash with (1.79 M) of positive cash flow from operations. | |
| Roughly 64.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
Other Information on Investing in Asia Stock
Asia Pacific financial ratios help investors to determine whether Asia Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Asia with respect to the benefits of owning Asia Pacific security.