Qantas Airways (Australia) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 4.41
| QAN Stock | 8.89 0.11 1.22% |
Qantas |
Qantas Airways Target Price Odds to finish below 4.41
The tendency of Qantas Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 4.41 or more in 90 days |
| 8.89 | 90 days | 4.41 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Qantas Airways to drop to 4.41 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Qantas Airways probability density function shows the probability of Qantas Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Qantas Airways price to stay between 4.41 and its current price of 8.89 at the end of the 90-day period is about 87.41 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Qantas Airways has a beta of -0.12 indicating as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Qantas Airways are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Qantas Airways is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Qantas Airways has an alpha of 0.3902, implying that it can generate a 0.39 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Qantas Airways Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Qantas Airways
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Qantas Airways. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Qantas Airways Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Qantas Airways is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Qantas Airways' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Qantas Airways, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Qantas Airways within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.39 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.12 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.75 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.21 |
Qantas Airways Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Qantas Airways for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Qantas Airways can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Latest headline from news.google.com: Qantas share price hits turbulence as engineers down tools - The Motley Fool Australia |
Qantas Airways Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Qantas Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Qantas Airways' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Qantas Airways' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.7 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 2 B |
Qantas Airways Technical Analysis
Qantas Airways' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Qantas Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Qantas Airways. In general, you should focus on analyzing Qantas Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Qantas Airways Predictive Forecast Models
Qantas Airways' time-series forecasting models is one of many Qantas Airways' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Qantas Airways' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Qantas Airways
Checking the ongoing alerts about Qantas Airways for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Qantas Airways help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Qantas share price hits turbulence as engineers down tools - The Motley Fool Australia |
Additional Tools for Qantas Stock Analysis
When running Qantas Airways' price analysis, check to measure Qantas Airways' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Qantas Airways is operating at the current time. Most of Qantas Airways' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Qantas Airways' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Qantas Airways' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Qantas Airways to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.