Roche Holding Ag Stock Probability of Future OTC Stock Price Finishing Under 282.28

RHHBF Stock  USD 285.76  9.24  3.13%   
Roche Holding's future price is the expected price of Roche Holding instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Roche Holding AG performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Roche Holding Backtesting, Roche Holding Valuation, Roche Holding Correlation, Roche Holding Hype Analysis, Roche Holding Volatility, Roche Holding History as well as Roche Holding Performance.
  
Please specify Roche Holding's target price for which you would like Roche Holding odds to be computed.

Roche Holding Target Price Odds to finish below 282.28

The tendency of Roche OTC Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to $ 282.28  or more in 90 days
 285.76 90 days 282.28 
about 1.21
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Roche Holding to drop to $ 282.28  or more in 90 days from now is about 1.21 (This Roche Holding AG probability density function shows the probability of Roche OTC Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Roche Holding AG price to stay between $ 282.28  and its current price of $285.76 at the end of the 90-day period is near 1 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Roche Holding has a beta of 0.3 indicating as returns on the market go up, Roche Holding average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Roche Holding AG will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Roche Holding AG has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial.
   Roche Holding Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Roche Holding

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Roche Holding AG. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the otc stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the otc stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
282.53285.76288.99
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
252.45255.68314.34
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
285.65288.88292.11
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
279.64305.64331.65
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Roche Holding. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Roche Holding's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Roche Holding's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Roche Holding AG.

Roche Holding Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Roche Holding is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Roche Holding's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Roche Holding AG, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Roche Holding within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
-0.21
β
Beta against Dow Jones0.30
σ
Overall volatility
20.33
Ir
Information ratio -0.09

Roche Holding Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Roche Holding for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Roche Holding AG can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Roche Holding AG generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Roche Holding AG has high historical volatility and very poor performance
About 75.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders

Roche Holding Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Roche OTC Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Roche Holding's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Roche Holding's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding854.3 M

Roche Holding Technical Analysis

Roche Holding's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Roche OTC Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Roche Holding AG. In general, you should focus on analyzing Roche OTC Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Roche Holding Predictive Forecast Models

Roche Holding's time-series forecasting models is one of many Roche Holding's otc stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Roche Holding's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the otc stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Roche Holding AG

Checking the ongoing alerts about Roche Holding for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Roche Holding AG help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Roche Holding AG generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Roche Holding AG has high historical volatility and very poor performance
About 75.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders

Other Information on Investing in Roche OTC Stock

Roche Holding financial ratios help investors to determine whether Roche OTC Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Roche with respect to the benefits of owning Roche Holding security.