Arcadia Biosciences Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 8.03
| RKDA Stock | USD 6.30 0.21 3.45% |
Arcadia |
Arcadia Biosciences Target Price Odds to finish below 8.03
The tendency of Arcadia Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under $ 8.03 after 90 days |
| 6.30 | 90 days | 8.03 | close to 99 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Arcadia Biosciences to stay under $ 8.03 after 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Arcadia Biosciences probability density function shows the probability of Arcadia Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Arcadia Biosciences price to stay between its current price of $ 6.30 and $ 8.03 at the end of the 90-day period is near 1 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Arcadia Biosciences has a beta of -2.57 indicating as returns on its benchmark rise, returns on holding Arcadia Biosciences are expected to decrease by similarly larger amounts. On the other hand, during market turmoils, Arcadia Biosciences is expected to outperform its benchmark. In addition to that Arcadia Biosciences has an alpha of 2.1135, implying that it can generate a 2.11 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Arcadia Biosciences Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Arcadia Biosciences
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Arcadia Biosciences. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Arcadia Biosciences' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Arcadia Biosciences Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Arcadia Biosciences is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Arcadia Biosciences' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Arcadia Biosciences, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Arcadia Biosciences within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 2.11 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -2.57 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.01 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.13 |
Arcadia Biosciences Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Arcadia Biosciences for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Arcadia Biosciences can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Arcadia Biosciences is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Arcadia Biosciences appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Arcadia Biosciences has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 5.33 M. Net Loss for the year was (13.99 M) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (2.22 M). | |
| Arcadia Biosciences currently holds about 21.23 M in cash with (15.29 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.96. | |
| Arcadia Biosciences has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: SHAREHOLDER INVESTIGATION Halper Sadeh LLC Investigates PFIE, CDMO, RKDA on Behalf of Shareholders |
Arcadia Biosciences Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Arcadia Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Arcadia Biosciences' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Arcadia Biosciences' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 11.6 M |
Arcadia Biosciences Technical Analysis
Arcadia Biosciences' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Arcadia Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Arcadia Biosciences. In general, you should focus on analyzing Arcadia Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Arcadia Biosciences Predictive Forecast Models
Arcadia Biosciences' time-series forecasting models is one of many Arcadia Biosciences' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Arcadia Biosciences' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Arcadia Biosciences
Checking the ongoing alerts about Arcadia Biosciences for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Arcadia Biosciences help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Arcadia Biosciences is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Arcadia Biosciences appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Arcadia Biosciences has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 5.33 M. Net Loss for the year was (13.99 M) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (2.22 M). | |
| Arcadia Biosciences currently holds about 21.23 M in cash with (15.29 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.96. | |
| Arcadia Biosciences has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: SHAREHOLDER INVESTIGATION Halper Sadeh LLC Investigates PFIE, CDMO, RKDA on Behalf of Shareholders |
Check out Arcadia Biosciences Backtesting, Arcadia Biosciences Valuation, Arcadia Biosciences Correlation, Arcadia Biosciences Hype Analysis, Arcadia Biosciences Volatility, Arcadia Biosciences History as well as Arcadia Biosciences Performance. For information on how to trade Arcadia Stock refer to our How to Trade Arcadia Stock guide.You can also try the Content Syndication module to quickly integrate customizable finance content to your own investment portal.
Is Agricultural Products & Services space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Arcadia Biosciences. If investors know Arcadia will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Arcadia Biosciences listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.285 | Earnings Share (6.77) | Revenue Per Share 3.802 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.04) | Return On Assets (0.39) |
The market value of Arcadia Biosciences is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Arcadia that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Arcadia Biosciences' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Arcadia Biosciences' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Arcadia Biosciences' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Arcadia Biosciences' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Arcadia Biosciences' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Arcadia Biosciences is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Arcadia Biosciences' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.